013
FXUS64 KFWD 181131
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY AS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
- MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE EAST OF I-35 THIS MORNING AS
A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE AFTER DAYBREAK, AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND NO HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S, AND THIS WILL SEND RH VALUES INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 60S. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MARGINALLY ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT, AND A GRASS FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
WHILE THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SCOUR ANY REMAINING
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE NOT
DRASTICALLY COOLER OWING TO THE TEPID NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM CP
AIRMASS. THE COOLER NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WILL MORE SO
BE DUE TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
LOW DEWPOINTS AND DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALREADY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL AMID BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL LAG BEHIND THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THOUGH, AND LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL ACT TO
ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S, WITH
A FEW READINGS IN THE 70S WEST OF I-35. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING TX
PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW, AND THE RESULTANT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR-RECORD VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S. WHILE MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN RETURNING TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE SECOND DAY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW, IT WILL
REMAIN ABSENT FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN.
ON SATURDAY EVENING, A NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL
ZONE GETS PULLED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE STALLING
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S, BUT THEY'LL STILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID DECEMBER.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH HEIGHTS THREE SIGMA
ABOVE AVERAGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ABNORMALLY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
CHRISTMAS COULD BE IN THE TOP 10 OR EVEN TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD
WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 70S OR LOWER 80S THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
D10 TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN A
GRADUAL PROCESS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN, SCT/BKN STRATUS MAINLY AT 1-2 KFT
WILL PERIODICALLY RESULT IN CEILINGS AT THE AIRPORTS BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR QUICKLY SCOURS ALL REMAINING
LOW CLOUD COVER BY 15/16Z. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE, AND THEN WILL ABRUPTLY BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING,
AND WILL ALREADY BEGIN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 38 64 49 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 70 38 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 64 34 59 45 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 66 31 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 34 62 46 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 66 39 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 67 34 63 46 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 69 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 70 36 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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