732
FXUS64 KFWD 181851
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AROUND
15-25 MPH.
- A MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE AROUND 15-25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED
AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THAT COULD BRIEFLY MEET CRITERIA.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THOUGH, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
ISN'T MUCH COOLER, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER. DRIER AIR WILL BE THE MOST
NOTABLE CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO
15-25%. COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY WINDS, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP, MAINLY AS A RESULT OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO 30S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS DIPPING JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR RURAL
NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESUME FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S. LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WE'LL BE RIDING A TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID
70S TO MID 80S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE THREATENED AT
BOTH OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (DFW AIRPORT AND WACO) SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A 40-50%
CHANCE OF BREAKING THE 15 YEAR OLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 79
DEGREES AT DFW AIRPORT, AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF BREAKING THE 47
YEAR OLD RECORD OF 79 DEGREES AT WACO.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF COOL-DOWN ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON MONDAY, WITH WARM WEATHER STICKING AROUND
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF COAST
STATES. IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR SWEATER WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY, I
HATE TO BE THE BEARER OR BAD NEWS, BUT IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE ONE
OF THE WARMEST WE'VE SEEN SINCE OUR RECORDS BEGAN - PERHAPS IN
THE TOP 5 WARMEST CHRISTMASES ON RECORD, BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST. NO COLD FRONTS OR RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AND MORNING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR AND BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING, DECREASING BELOW 5
KNOTS AROUND 08-10Z TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS BUT WILL RESUME A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 38 64 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 38 64 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 34 59 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 31 64 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 34 62 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 39 64 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 34 63 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 38 66 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 36 66 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 33 69 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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