899
FXUS64 KFWD 190640
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 TODAY,
THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVED AFTER YESTERDAY'S FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD,
LEADING TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD ANOTHER
BREEZY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WITH DORMANT FUELS IN PLACE, THE THREAT FOR
FIRES TO SPREAD WILL INCREASE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET, DIMINISHING THE FIRE THREAT AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A WARM SATURDAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 70S AND 80S. THIS UNUSUAL
WARMTH IS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AIDING IN
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS AIR ROLLS DOWN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SITTING AT 79 AND 78 IN DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND WACO
RESPECTIVELY, TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH, IF NOT EXCEED RECORD
VALUES FOR SOME. FOR DFW, THE ODDS OF CLIMBING ABOVE 79 DEGREES
REMAIN BELOW 40%, HOWEVER, THE ODDS OF CLIMBING ABOVE 78 DEGREES
AT WACO ARE NOW AROUND 80%.
THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH IT LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MEANS HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHILE CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AS WE BEGIN CHRISTMAS WEEK, THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BY CHRISTMAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
IF YOU WERE DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS, YOU'LL HAVE TO KEEP
DREAMING FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER YEAR. GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, OUR
FORECAST HIGHS WOULD TIE FOR THE 3RD WARMEST CHRISTMAS ON RECORD.
THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE
UNLIKELY.
WHEN MIGHT THIS WARM PATTERN CHANGE? THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2025
WITH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS STILL 10-12
DAYS OUT, CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO BEGIN ADVERTISING A COOL
DOWN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AT ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS TODAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BETWEEN 20Z THROUGH
00Z. AS THE SUN SETS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND SETTLE AROUND 8 KTS. NO PRECIPITATION, WIND SHIFTS OR
LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 65 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 59 44 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 63 45 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 62 46 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 65 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 64 45 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 67 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 67 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 69 46 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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