795
FXUS64 KFWD 191822
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 TODAY,
THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
A PLEASANT DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE THREAT WEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER COMPACT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, A STEADY 10-15 MPH
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
TOGETHER, THE WINDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ON SATURDAY, WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY VEER AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, AND A COMBINATION OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER DAY
FOR THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S TO MID
80S, POTENTIALLY SETTING (OR AT LEAST TYING) RECORD HIGHS. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR DFW IS 79 DEGREES (SET IN 2010), AND THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE THIS RECORD WILL BE TIED (~20% CHANCE OF BREAKING
THE RECORD). FOR WACO, THE RECORD HIGH IS 78 DEGREES (SET IN
1978), AND THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF BREAKING THIS RECORD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED GRASSFIRE THREAT WEST OF I-35
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, LIKELY ENTERING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. A COOLER NIGHT IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S. LOWS IN THE
50S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL/EAST
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
(ESPECIALLY NORTH TEXAS) IN THE MORNING AND WILL BE HERE TO STAY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THE AIR WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT, PERSISTENT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOLER SIDE, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE LOWERED FROM NBM TO
REFLECT THIS. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID 50S AND 60S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WHILE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION,
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-20%) THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES, BUT ANY RAIN WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS/GULF COAST. THIS
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO COLD FRONTS OR
RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
HEADING INTO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2025.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MVFR OR IFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ANY CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE KACT TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 76 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 48 78 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 44 70 48 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 45 77 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 46 74 47 62 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 49 77 50 64 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 45 75 52 65 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 48 78 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 46 79 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 46 84 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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