097
FXUS64 KFWD 200700
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY AND WARM DAY IN STORE, THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WEST OF
HWY 281 IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AREAS EAST OF HWY 281 WILL BE
BREEZY, HOWEVER, HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER THE
OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A RECORD-BREAKING WARM DAY FOR
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 79 AND 78 IN DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND WACO
RESPECTIVELY. BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO TYING OR BREAKING
THE RECORD HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REASON FOR TODAY'S HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST,
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TYPICALLY MEAN WARM DAYS AS AIR
GRADUALLY DESCENDS FROM THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS.
ADDITIONALLY, COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL ALSO OCCUR AS A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL INITIALLY CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND 4, REACHING THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BY 6PM. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, YIELDING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
SATURDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S --
FITTING FOR THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER,
MAKING FOR A GOOD DAY TO ENJOY THAT HOT CHOCOLATE BEFORE MAKING
THE SWITCH TO ICED PEPPERMINT MOCHA AS WE BEGIN CHRISTMAS WEEK.
SUNDAY'S POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK IN FULL FORCE
ON MONDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY SURGE INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF I-35 WHERE THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MORE READILY WARM UP IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ATOP TEXAS IN FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE
VARIABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SIMILAR HIGHS
AND LOWS EACH DAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER WARM
CHRISTMAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
BEYOND THIS WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE
THE LAST 2-3 DAYS OF 2025. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WHETHER WE'LL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS SKY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS AT 2-3 KFT AGL
ARE MUCH STRONGER, RANGING BETWEEN 45-55 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN KANSAS. THE ONGOING LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE THE ELEVATED WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL DRAW A PLUME OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH THE WESTERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS
REACHING KACT THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST VERY
LONG AS THEY RETREAT EASTWARD BY 16Z. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING, USHERING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. FOR WACO, THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL CLOSER TO 08Z, THEREFORE, A
WIND SHIFT WILL BE ADDED IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 47 61 51 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 49 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 71 50 58 49 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 78 42 60 47 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 47 61 50 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 78 49 63 52 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 50 64 51 / 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA 77 54 68 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 48 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 41 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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