191
FXUS64 KFWD 211834
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE AND NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
MIDDAY AS MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW,
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING, AND WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL KEEP SOME LOCATIONS MUCH WARMER THAN OTHERS, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 60S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
CLEARING FROM THE STRATUS AND POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S. EVEN THOUGH IT'S
COOLER TODAY (AND THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK),
TEMPERATURES NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 ARE STILL AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AS A RESULT, WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING'S LOWS IN TERMS OF A TEMPERATURE
SPREAD, WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMER
CONDITIONS KICK OFF TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S
AREAWIDE, WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY FOR THOSE WEST
OF U.S. 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CONSISTENT MIDWEEK, WITH
DAY TO DAY CHANGES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER/COOLER FOR ANY
GIVEN SITE, AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PREVAILING WEATHER. NAEFS
AND ECMWF PERCENTILES ARE MAXED OUT FOR 200 MB AND 500 MB HEIGHTS,
WITH THESE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE AT STAKE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (~30% CHANCE OR LESS), FRIDAY WILL REALLY BE
THE DAY TO WATCH AS RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH W/SW LOW LEVEL
WIND AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM. DFW'S RECORD FOR THE
26TH IS 83, AND CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THE
RECORD. WACO'S RECORD IS 84, AND SIMILARLY HAS A 50% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THE RECORD. OTHERWISE, THE NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A COUPLE OF RECORD WARMEST LOWS POSSIBLE
FOR DFW, WITH A RECORD OF 60 DEGREES ON THE 23RD AND 24TH FORECAST
TO BE BROKEN BY A LOW OF 61 BOTH DAYS. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF WILL STILL BE
AMONG THE WARMEST ON RECORD, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK
TO TIE FOR THIRD WARMEST AT DFW (78 DEGREES) AND TO BECOME THE 4TH
WARMEST FOR WACO (77 DEGREES).
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE STOUT RIDGING DEAMPLIFIES AND A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY UNDERSTANDABLY EXISTS WITH
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY COLD FRONT/POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES
FOR DAYS 7 AND BEYOND. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE
ANY NOTABLE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT "WINTER" COLD, BUT MAY HELP
RETURN CONDITIONS TO MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
DETERIORATED FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
MIDDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PERSISTING ACROSS D10 AND THE IFR CIGS AT
WACO LIKELY TO LINGER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO
MVFR. OVC SKIES WILL BECOME BKN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GAPS/POCKETS WITHIN THE MVFR STRATUS AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SITE TO BRIEFLY TURN LOW-END VFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BEFORE A MORE SOLID BLANKET OF MVFR
AND IFR DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE D10 SITES FROM 10/14Z, WITH MVFR CIGS
OTHERWISE PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF WINDOW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OF SCT020-050 BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SKC. FOR WACO, THERE IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF IFR CEILINGS, WITH ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY
NEEDED BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
TRENDS SHOULD BE SIMILAR OVERALL TO THE METROPLEX SITES, BUT THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT IFR CONDITIONS SKIRT JUST EAST OF THE
AIRPORT. OTHERWISE, N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FOR D10 AND SWERLY FOR WACO THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 73 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 54 74 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 49 69 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 49 72 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 51 71 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 54 74 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 52 72 61 77 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 56 75 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 51 74 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 48 76 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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