692
FXUS64 KFWD 212341
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE AND NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
MIDDAY AS MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW,
GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THIS
CLOUD COVER KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING, AND WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL KEEP SOME LOCATIONS MUCH WARMER THAN OTHERS, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 60S. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
CLEARING FROM THE STRATUS AND POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S. EVEN THOUGH IT'S
COOLER TODAY (AND THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK),
TEMPERATURES NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 ARE STILL AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AS A RESULT, WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING'S LOWS IN TERMS OF A TEMPERATURE
SPREAD, WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMER
CONDITIONS KICK OFF TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S
AREAWIDE, WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 80S BY TUESDAY FOR THOSE WEST
OF U.S. 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CONSISTENT MIDWEEK, WITH
DAY TO DAY CHANGES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER/COOLER FOR ANY
GIVEN SITE, AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PREVAILING WEATHER. NAEFS
AND ECMWF PERCENTILES ARE MAXED OUT FOR 200 MB AND 500 MB HEIGHTS,
WITH THESE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO BE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE AT STAKE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK (~30% CHANCE OR LESS), FRIDAY WILL REALLY BE
THE DAY TO WATCH AS RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH W/SW LOW LEVEL
WIND AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM. DFW'S RECORD FOR THE
26TH IS 83, AND CURRENTLY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THE
RECORD. WACO'S RECORD IS 84, AND SIMILARLY HAS A 50% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST TYING THE RECORD. OTHERWISE, THE NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH A COUPLE OF RECORD WARMEST LOWS POSSIBLE
FOR DFW, WITH A RECORD OF 60 DEGREES ON THE 23RD AND 24TH FORECAST
TO BE BROKEN BY A LOW OF 61 BOTH DAYS. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF WILL STILL BE
AMONG THE WARMEST ON RECORD, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK
TO TIE FOR THIRD WARMEST AT DFW (78 DEGREES) AND TO BECOME THE 4TH
WARMEST FOR WACO (77 DEGREES).
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE STOUT RIDGING DEAMPLIFIES AND A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY UNDERSTANDABLY EXISTS WITH
THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY COLD FRONT/POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES
FOR DAYS 7 AND BEYOND. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE
ANY NOTABLE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT "WINTER" COLD, BUT MAY HELP
RETURN CONDITIONS TO MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BLANKET D10 AND ACT
THIS EVENING, AND THESE LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WHILE
LOWERING TO IFR ON MONDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY 14Z MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AROUND 15Z AT
ACT AND 18Z IN D10. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
VEER TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY MORNING, THEN INCREASE AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 52 73 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 65 54 74 63 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 60 49 69 58 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 61 49 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 61 51 71 59 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 63 54 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 64 52 72 61 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 66 56 75 63 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 66 51 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 48 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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