916
FXUS64 KFWD 221148
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE AND NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
YESTERDAY'S COOLER WEATHER WILL BE DISTANT MEMORY AS WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT
TIMES, THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING, LEADING
TO CLOUDY SKIES. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ON TUESDAY,
DELIVERING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE WARM AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WEEK.
WHAT WILL THIS WARMTH MEAN FOR YOUR CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS
DAY FESTIVITIES? YOU'LL BE ABLE TO ENJOY SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS!
KIDS WILL BE RIDING THEIR NEW BICYCLES AND SCOOTERS IN T-SHIRTS
AND SHORTS WITHOUT HAVING TO WORRY ABOUT THEM BEING COLD! HOW
WARM WILL IT ACTUALLY BE? CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-35 IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. COMPARED TO RECORD TEMPERATURES (RECORD IS 82F), THE
ODDS LEAN TOWARD BELOW-RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO. LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE THE ODDS OF A RECORD-HOT CHRISTMAS DAY ARE BELOW
30%.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET WARMER AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
AS IT'S IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THE RECORD AT DFW IS 83 DEGREES WHILE WACO'S RECORD IS 84
DEGREES. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF
TYING THE RECORD, HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A PSUDO-DRYLINE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS MAY LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POSITION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AS LOCATIONS ON THE DRY SIDE OF
THE FRONT WILL MORE READILY WARM UP IN COMPARISON TO THE MOIST
SIDE.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHETHER A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR IF WE'LL
CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE ONGOING WARM REGIME. THE PASSING
OF A COLD FRONT WOULD BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE AS WE CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
TWO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE NORTHERN-MOST DECK OF CLOUDS IS LEADING TO MOSTLY MVFR
ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN SLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF VFR. A SECONDARY WAVE OF
LOW CLOUDS IS NOW MOVING INTO KACT, ALSO LEADING TO MVFR. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD, THE CENTRAL TEXAS CLOUD DECK
WILL LIKELY GAIN SOME ELEVATION AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOW-LEVEL
MIXING. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LATE MORNING WAVE OF MVFR IN NORTH
TEXAS.
VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND IFR IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DECK OF CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 62 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 74 64 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 70 60 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 73 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 61 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 74 63 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 74 62 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 65 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 62 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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