405
FXUS64 KFWD 071123
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF US-281 ON THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
OUR WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A PALESTINE-CAMERON-SAN MARCOS LINE. WITH
INCREASED DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND VERY LIGHT WINDS,
EXPECT PATCHY FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE IN OUR CWA, IT WILL BE MUCH
TOO DRY FOR ANY EFFICIENT FOG FORMATION EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WITH MOST OF OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, IT'LL BE A MUCH COOLER
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
A STOUTER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST, THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE USHERED NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATER IN THE DAY, THOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER
TO START OFF. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE 70S AND 80S, AROUND 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE RED RIVER,
WHILE A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT, PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE-SIDE LOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES, MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, INTERACTING WITH LIFT FROM THE STORM
SYSTEM TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINING A BIT REMOVED FROM THE SYSTEM, THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OFFSET INTO OKLAHOMA.
AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE - OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS LACKLUSTER AND WILL HELP TO CURB THE INTENSITY OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR > 50-60
KTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
OUR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
OVER THE MORNING THURSDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST, USHERING OUR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EAST TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
COUPLED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION AND LOW
RH VALUES, WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF US-281
WHERE HUMIDITY IS LOWEST.
MOST OF THE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST OVER THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT STALLS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST AND SE CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY.
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST ZONES NEAR THAT STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE DAY FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT THE SYSTEM'S TRUE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY-MONDAY, ALONGSIDE A RETURN OF NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS SUNDAY-MONDAY. ON THOSE MORNINGS,
REMEMBER TO BUNDLE UP ON YOUR WAY OUT THE DOOR!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM, AND WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AFTER ~14-15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP IN SPEED
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, BUT WILL REALLY BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE
TONIGHT CLOSER TO 04-05Z AS A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A SURGE OF LOW MVFR STRATUS
BLANKETING THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MORNING RUSH. MVFR IS EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE D10 TERMINALS OVER LATE THURSDAY MORNING IS LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO FOREGO INCLUSION IN THE TAF. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 63 78 54 / 0 20 30 10
WACO 79 64 77 55 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 74 58 74 53 / 0 20 50 10
DENTON 77 60 77 47 / 0 30 30 0
MCKINNEY 76 61 77 51 / 0 20 40 10
DALLAS 77 63 79 54 / 0 20 20 10
TERRELL 78 63 77 54 / 0 10 30 10
CORSICANA 81 65 80 59 / 0 10 20 10
TEMPLE 81 63 80 54 / 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 81 60 79 47 / 0 30 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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