228
FXUS64 KFWD 071853
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1253 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-20 ON THURSDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF US-281 ON THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY, TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON IS IN PLACE FOR US WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITTING NEAR THE
BRAZOS VALLEY REGION DIVIDING THE HIGHER 60+ DEWPOINTS (AND
CLOUDS) TO OUR SOUTH AND 30S/40S DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER
OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND AS SOUTH FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE RETURNS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW. FOR OUR AREA, NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE AXIS OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH IN
OK/KS. NEVERTHELESS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TAIL-END OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, MOST OF THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LESS EXCITED ON DEVELOPING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA (WITH BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR STAYING
NORTH OF US).
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT AGAIN THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT MOST OF US
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OR ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES TOWARDS EAST TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE IMPACTFUL FOR US IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR
25-28 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DECREASE
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S REGION WIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY, A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND BRING THE ANTICIPATED COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, WE COULD HAVE ONE LAST
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE
THURSDAY'S FRONT, AT THIS TIME, WE'RE EXPECTING IT TO BE EAST AND
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM OR TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, WE WILL FINALLY SEE MUCH COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE FORECAST
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COOLER WEATHER WILL REMAIN WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
CONCERNS...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT/BKN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-20KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT DECENT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH A DECK
OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07-08Z AT WACO AND NEAR D10 BY
10-11Z THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO IMPACT SOME OF THE
NORTH TEXAS SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
RED RIVER TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS BUT SHOULDN'T HAVE
ANY DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR SITES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE WINDS
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 79 52 69 / 10 30 0 10
WACO 65 78 53 71 / 0 20 0 30
PARIS 59 75 52 69 / 10 60 10 20
DENTON 60 78 45 68 / 20 40 0 10
MCKINNEY 61 77 50 68 / 10 30 0 10
DALLAS 65 79 53 71 / 10 20 0 10
TERRELL 63 77 52 71 / 10 30 0 20
CORSICANA 66 79 57 73 / 0 20 0 30
TEMPLE 64 79 53 73 / 0 10 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 60 79 46 70 / 30 20 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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