684
FXUS64 KFWD 091125
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER LATE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WE SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY SEPARATING HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM A
DRIER AIRMASS IS LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DENOTED BY
THE SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
THIS TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON (FRIDAY) AS
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
MEAGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, THIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 500 J/KG
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF I-20. AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS
MOISTURE AXIS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING (FRIDAY) AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY PUSH THIS ACTIVITY
INTO EAST TEXAS BY LATE EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BUT A LACK
OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT (FRIDAY), ENTERING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET AND QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR A LITTLE AFTER. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
SPILL SOUTHWARD SENDING OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN NEAR
FREEZING IN OUR NORTHWEST WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID 50S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS DIMINISH. MOST AREAS
WILL BE NEAR FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER 20S EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MODEST WARMUP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S,
HOWEVER A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MAY LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY QUIET WITH ANOTHER
WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR PREVAILS UNDER A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
NORTH WINDS IN PLACE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS WILL MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR
AREAS EAST OF WACO THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FEW HOURS OF VCTS AT ACT BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE D10
AIRSPACE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 39 56 35 / 10 10 0 0
WACO 69 41 56 35 / 30 20 0 0
PARIS 68 41 54 33 / 10 20 0 0
DENTON 70 36 55 30 / 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 70 39 55 32 / 10 10 0 0
DALLAS 71 40 56 38 / 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 70 41 55 33 / 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 72 43 58 36 / 40 30 0 0
TEMPLE 70 40 57 33 / 40 20 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 36 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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