291
FXUS64 KFWD 091820
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT MANAGED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, WITH THE BOUNDARY NOW
RESIDING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES. WE ARE MAINLY
USING THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO HELP US IDENTIFY THIS BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE, A SOMEWHAT POTENT (AND QUICK-MOVING) SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS IS TAPPING INTO A NARROW BAND OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE ISN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE.
DESPITE THE MEAGER INSTABILITY, A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS INSTABILITY
IS NEAR/BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL, AND THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IN THIS LAYER TO HELP INCREASE HAIL PRODUCTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO. OUR MAIN CONCERN IS HAIL, BUT GIVEN
THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND INCREASED HAIL/COLD POOL PRODUCTION
POTENTIAL, A FEW STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CORES AS WELL. THE FRONT, AND ANY TORNADO
THREATS, SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE ARE CONFIDENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA, BUT WE AREN'T CONFIDENT HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THESE STORMS WILL EXTEND. AS IT STANDS NOW, THERE IS
ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM IN OR WEST OF THE
METROPLEX.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP, TODAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FOR MOST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY'S VALUES THANKS TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH. A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
PANHANDLES THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT WOULD STILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO
SECURE ANY LOOSE OBJECTS YOU HAVE ANY HAVE LAYING AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, SUNDAY WILL STILL HAVE
RELATIVELY NICE TEMPERATURES WITH MOST OF THE AREA AROUND 60 (+/-
A FEW DEGREES). LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BRING A SUBTLE WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK. WE HAVE PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS
SECONDARY COLD PUSH DUE TO A STRONG SIGNAL OF DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE DAY 5-10 RANGE. TONIGHT'S
FRONT WILL PUSH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE GULF, CHOKING
OFF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPING AFTER
THURSDAY (I.E. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES), BUT NONE HAVE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING LONG ENOUGH TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN A 10-20%
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR AND LIGHT NORTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE
WATCHING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL
SW OF D10. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP WITHIN
D10 LATER TODAY, WE DO EXPECT A MID-LEVEL CEILING AOA 6KFT TO MOVE
IN AFTER ABOUT 19-20Z. THERE IS A ~20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS
IN D10 FROM ABOUT 22-01Z. WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STORMS NEAR
ACT, SO WE HAVE VCTS IN THE ACT TAF THROUGH 23Z.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND A FEW MVFR/ILS CEILINGS. THE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN SPEED BETWEEN ~07-10Z, BUT WE ONLY INCLUDED
ONE LINE TO SHOW THE WIND SPEED INCREASE. THE CHANCE OF A MVFR
CEILING IS ONLY AROUND 30%, SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE LOW CEILINGS IN
THE TAFS, BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LOWER
AARS DURING TOMORROW MORNING'S PUSH DUE TO CEILINGS. EITHER WAY,
VFR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 40 56 36 / 10 10 0 0
WACO 69 41 56 34 / 40 10 0 0
PARIS 69 41 53 34 / 10 10 0 0
DENTON 69 35 55 31 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 70 39 55 33 / 10 10 0 0
DALLAS 70 41 56 38 / 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 71 41 56 33 / 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 72 43 59 36 / 40 20 0 0
TEMPLE 69 40 58 33 / 50 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 71 35 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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