211
FXUS64 KFWD 100514
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
- THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT WHILE COOLER AIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHICH IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER.
SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE WITH ANY CLOUD COVER
SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AND
AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO 15-25%. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN FIRE STARTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 WHERE DORMANT VEGETATION IS AVAILABLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING WEST OF I-35. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LOCATED OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. WE'LL
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, WE'LL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPILLS SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WE'LL BE WATCHING
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE IN PLACE. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER DURING THE MORNING. FOR NOW, WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR, BUT LOW
CIGS MAY MAKE A RUN AT D10 AIRPORTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING
SPEEDS TOWARD SUNSET.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 40 56 37 59 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 40 56 35 60 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 42 54 35 56 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 35 55 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 39 55 33 57 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 41 56 38 60 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 41 56 35 59 / 40 0 0 0
CORSICANA 44 58 37 61 / 40 0 0 0
TEMPLE 40 57 34 61 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 35 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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