280
FXUS64 KFWD 101125
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT WHILE COOLER AIR AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WHICH IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER.
SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT STRONG ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE WITH ANY CLOUD COVER
SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AND
AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO 15-25%. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN FIRE STARTS MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 WHERE DORMANT VEGETATION IS AVAILABLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING WEST OF I-35. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW LOCATED OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. WE'LL
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY, STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, WE'LL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
WRAP AROUND MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE D10 AIRSPACE
THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2000 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THESE ARE QUICKLY BEING ERODED AS DEEPER MIXING WORKS ITS WAY
DOWN BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. WE'LL PREVAIL ABOUT 1-2 HOURS
MORE OF MVFR CIGS WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 1330Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KT EXPECTED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 37 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 55 34 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 34 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 54 31 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 54 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 55 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 55 34 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 56 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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