302
FXUS64 KFWD 160705
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
105 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST OF I-35 TODAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
- A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES COULD BE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30% RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MAKING HASTE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAYTIME. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH NO INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT, AS THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY MOISTURE-STARVED. THE BOUNDARY'S
PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ABRUPT NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE A COUPLE SITES COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE OCCURRENCES PRESENTLY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL
AND SCANT TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
THE REST OF THE MORNING IN CASE A SMALL PRODUCT IS NEEDED FOR OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THE GUSTY WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER POST-
FRONTAL AIR WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT, AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSE WEST OF I-35 WHERE RH VALUES SHOULD
DIP TO 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S.
A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. A
COLD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH
URBAN AREAS LIKELY BEING THE ONLY LOCATIONS TO HOLD ABOVE
FREEZING.
ON SATURDAY MORNING, THE TRAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A COINCIDENT BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND 6C MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MATERIALIZING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS STRONG ASCENT SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASED MID CLOUD COVER, AND COULD MANAGE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME VIRGA OR EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES NORTH OF I-20. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE FALLING FROM A CLOUD DECK AT 8-10 KFT AGL, AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY HYDROMETEORS TO SURVIVE A JOURNEY TO THE
SURFACE IS QUITE LOW GIVEN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF NEARLY 30C IN
THE SUBCLOUD AIRMASS. WE'LL INTRODUCE A BRIEF MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, JUST IN CASE A COUPLE SIGHTINGS OCCUR SOMEWHERE
IN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 40 IN
SOME PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SATURDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE
OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S OR EVEN UPPER TEENS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE MID CLOUD DECK EXITS TO THE EAST, WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH
LESSENING WIND SPEEDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY, PROMPTING A
MODEST WARMUP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY, HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY'S
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SCOURED ALL MEANINGFUL MOISTURE CONTENT WELL
INTO THE GULF, SO DESPITE THE RENEWED SOUTHERLY FETCH, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WORKWEEK. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONTAL
ZONE MAY SAG INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER, AND THIS MAY KNOCK DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 50S. STRONGER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND AN OVERRUNNING REGIME
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITHIN THE
CWA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WITH ATTEMPTING TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD QPF ALREADY ON TUESDAY, AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL SIDE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MAJORITY WITH RAIN CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND 14Z IN THE METROPLEX
AND 16Z AT WACO. THIS FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO 10 KTS OR
LESS THIS EVENING WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS SPREADING
OVERHEAD LATER TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 44 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 44 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 39 57 32 / 0 0 10 0
DENTON 59 38 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 41 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 46 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 56 41 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 45 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 62 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 41 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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