002
FXUS64 KFWD 162316
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY.
- A FEW SPRINKLES OR FAINT SNOW FLURRY COULD BE OBSERVED IN PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30% RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RAPIDLY
SPREADING WILDFIRES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY
LOW HUMIDITY. A SECONDARY THREAT IS STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT MAY
BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS OR MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING ON EAST-WEST ROADWAYS. BOTH OF THESE
ARE DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS, THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE FRONT IS GENERALLY "OVER PERFORMING" THE GUIDANCE, MEANING
THE WINDS ARE STRONGER, THE AIR IS DRIER, AND THE TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLER THAN THE INITIAL MODEL GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS STRONGER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED,
ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND VERY DRY AIR IS OFFSETTING THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE
FOR OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL WARM INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.
THE STRONG CAA IS HELPING STRENGTHEN THE WINDS, AT LEAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, AFTER FROPA. A SURFACE HIGH IS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD LAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER WIND
SPEEDS THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE LOCATIONS IN AND
EAST OF THE THE LOWER BRAZOS VALLEY AND HIGHLY URBAN AREAS.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. IT'S ALSO LOOKING LIKE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN ~700-500
MB TOMORROW THAT ALIGNS ITSELF NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS WILL BRING
DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH
BASES NEAR 8-10 KFT HIGH. A COMBO OF DEEP SATURATION, FAVORABLE(ISH)
LAPSE RATES, AND LOCALIZED ASCENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
SHOULD DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER THE
SUB-CLOUD AIR WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WITH SURFACE RH AROUND
15-20%. THIS MEANS ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE EFFICIENTLY
SUBLIMATED OR EVAPORATED AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE VERY DRY AIR. THE
MAIN QUESTIONS ARE A) WILL IT REACH THE GROUND AT ALL AND B) IF IT
DOES, WILL IT REACH THE GROUND AS A SNOWFLAKE OR RAINDROP?
REGARDING A), THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE THAT ANY PRECIP REACHES
THE GROUND AT ALL AND A < 6% CHANCE THAT THERE IS ENOUGH PRECIP TO
MEASURE MORE THAN A FAINT TRACE. REGARDING B), WE CAN SAY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIP FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUD WILL BE
SNOW (REMEMBER, 10,000 FT HIGH). IT'S JUST A MATTER OF IF THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PRECIP FALLING TO COOL THE SURROUNDING AIR TO THE
WET-BULB TEMPERATURE (WHICH IS GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ALL THE
WAY TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF I-20 AND DOES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF I-20). THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS LOW, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR NW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IF
I HAD TO GIVE A PROBABILITY THAT FLURRIES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-20, IT WOULD BE ABOUT
10%. FOR YOU STATISTICAL JUNKIES OUT THERE, THAT MEANS THERE IS
ONLY A 2% CHANCE YOU WILL SEE A FLURRY AT ALL.
A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TOMORROW WILL BE COOL, CLOUDY, AND
BREEZY. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A POST-FRONTAL
TROUGH/KINK IN THE PRESSURE FIELD WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT, TOMORROW WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW OUR
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS, THANKFULLY, BEING MITIGATED BY
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILDFIRES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE COOLER AIR DOES LESSEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FIRE STARTS. HOWEVER IF ANY FIRES ARE ABLE TO GET GOING, THE
FIRE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RESISTANCE TO CONTROL AND
INCREASE THE RISK OF THE FIRES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. WE HAVE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35/35E FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME CARE IS URGED DURING
ALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES WHERE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES
TO GET STARTED. AVOID OUTSIDE BURNING AND WELDING. DO NOT TOSS LIT
CIGARETTE BUTTS OUTSIDE. REPORT WILDFIRES TO THE NEAREST FIRE
DEPARTMENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE QUICKLY.
VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WHILE
THIS TYPICALLY DRAMATICALLY INCREASES THE WILDFIRE THREAT THE NEXT
DAY, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET THE
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE THREAT
WILL BE ELEVATED, SO EXTREME CARE IS STILL BE URGED TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING LOCALLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
(MONDAY) AND STALL SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE THEN STARTS TO VARY QUITE A BIT,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT A JETSTREAK MOVES IN OVERTOP OF THE
STALLED FRONT AND INDUCES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE STATE, WITH
WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING SITUATION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT/LOW. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION
IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST THAT WE KEPT THE NBM POPS ALONE,
BUT SIGNS ARE LOOKING BETTER THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME RAIN IN THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS AND NORTH
TO NORTHWEST SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, WHILE
THICK CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 7K-30K FT ALSO SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY WHILE
DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 33 49 27 60 / 0 10 0 0
WACO 31 50 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 31 45 19 53 / 0 10 10 0
DENTON 28 48 23 59 / 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 30 47 22 56 / 0 10 10 0
DALLAS 34 49 26 61 / 0 10 10 0
TERRELL 31 49 21 57 / 0 10 10 0
CORSICANA 32 51 26 60 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 31 52 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 49 24 62 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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