283
FXUS64 KFWD 172312
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH SUNSET, WITH THE THREAT
SHIFTING TO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF I-35 SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW
DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MORE
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 UP TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER THROUGH AFTERNOON, BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH CAN BE OBSERVED BY LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS ON
METARS. THIS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE ALONGSIDE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS ALOFT AND PRESENT ASCENT WILL PROMOTE A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FINALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU LEAVE YOUR HOUSE, AND TO
PROTECT THE 4 P'S - PETS, PEOPLE, PLANTS, AND PIPES. TOMORROW WILL
BE A BIT WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN UNDERNEATH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL SET US UP FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCERN
FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RH IS LOWEST AND WINDS ARE
STRONGER. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRIED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION,
SO MAKE SURE TO AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD PRODUCE FIRE
STARTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ANOTHER DIGGING DISTURBANCE WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THIS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF I-35. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS, IT'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE USHERED THROUGH THE
REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. A QUICK WARM UP (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S) WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHOT AT RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT D10 AND KACT THIS EVENING WITH JUST FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 11K FT EXPECTED. TOMORROW WILL SEE SKC
WITH A FEW CIRRUS SPREADING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 12-13Z WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z THEN UP TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FROPA IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO NORTHERLY NEAR/AFTER 19/03Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 26 60 33 50 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 24 60 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 20 53 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 18 60 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 20 57 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 26 60 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 20 57 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 25 60 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 23 61 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 20 63 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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