212
FXUS64 KFWD 181843
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST OF I-35
TODAY DUE TO BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
- RAIN CHANCES OF 20-50% RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAIN (10-30% CHANCE).
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
AFTER A VERY COLD START TO TODAY, THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH
MORE MILD. WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH NOW TO OUR SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH- TO-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL AID IN PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY THANKS TO A PERSISTENTLY TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
EXPECTED. VERY DRY AIR STILL REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH AFTERNOON RH
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW 30% ACROSS THE REGION. THESE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE RH DROPS CLOSER TO 15-20%. MAKE SURE TO AVOID ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING OR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE USHERED SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHEAST ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE QUICK RETURN OF NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CHILLY IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MOST EVERYONE WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW FREEZING, OUTSIDE OF
PORTIONS OF THE DFW URBAN HEAT ISLAND WHERE IT MAY STAY IN THE MID
30S. CAMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME GUSTIER POST-FRONTAL WINDS
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ARE LIKELY. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
STEEPER IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 60S IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN
CURBING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OUT WEST ON MONDAY, BUT MAKE SURE
TO TAKE CAUTION AS ABUNDANT DRIED FUELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EASY
FIRE STARTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY, WITH MORE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS WE HEAD
INTO MIDWEEK, FURTHER PUMPING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVES OVERTOP THE COOLER SURFACE, WE'LL
BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, SHUNTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
AND SHAVING A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A RAPID WARM UP BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER MINUTE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH LATER THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS OF 18Z, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
CAUSE CROSSWIND ISSUES ON DIAGONAL RUNWAYS. OVER THE EVENING,
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED TO AOB 7 KTS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, FORCING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT D10
AROUND 03-04Z, AND AT ACT CLOSER TO 10Z TOMORROW MORNING. SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, RESULTING IN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 34 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 61 31 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 52 29 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 60 27 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 29 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 34 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 30 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 60 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 64 28 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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