328
FXUS64 KFWD 190701
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
101 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND IMPACTFUL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONGER MOMENTUM TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN BREEZIER NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS. COLD ADVECTION WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE 40S
FOR THE TEXOMA REGION AND MOSTLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND THE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE
WILDFIRE THREAT TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS DIPPING TO NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE RETURN OF SOUTH FLOW
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY WILL OFFER A MODEST WARMUP OF A
FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD REGARDING A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION AND CHANCES
FOR WINTRY PRECIP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BEFORE
DIGGING MORE INTO THAT, WE DO HAVE SOME MIDWEEK RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTEND WITH FIRST, AS MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE ONSET OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BE MOISTURE-STARVED DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, A MORE
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL SEND A SWATH OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AND LOW
STRATUS INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET IMPINGES ON THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE THE RESULT AREA-WIDE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE LIGHT RAIN DUE TO THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WITH
RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN 10% TO THE WEST. POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A HIGH-POP LOW-
QPF EVENT WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN STORE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR TO PERHAPS ABOUT 1/4" AT MOST ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EASTWARD, BUT THE
LACK OF A SCOURING BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER TO LINGER
INTO THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S.
WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS, A RATHER MONUMENTAL SHIFT HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND FRIDAY HAD PREVIOUSLY
BEEN IN THE GUTTER WITH A MASSIVE DISPARITY IN THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLUTION FROM DAY 6 ONWARD, AND A FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF
ANYWHERE FROM TEENS TO 70S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MUCH
CLEARER CONSENSUS EXISTS NOW THAN JUST 12-24 HOURS AGO, WITH ALL
GLOBAL GUIDANCE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE
AIGEFS AND THE ECMWF AIFS, WHICH UNANIMOUSLY DEPICT SUBFREEZING
AIR COINCIDING WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND THE NBM ARE ON BOARD, WITH SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS GOING
FROM THE 50S/60S TO THE 20S/30S WITHIN A SINGLE FORECAST CYCLE.
THE IMPENDING ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL BE THE CULMINATION OF
PROLONGED LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH WILL
FINALLY UNLEASH A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SOURCES OF LIFT FROM TRAILING DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL OFFER ONE OR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
PRECIP FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF SUBFREEZING AIR. THE QUESTION IS
NO LONGER "IF" IT WILL GET COLD, BUT INSTEAD "HOW SOON" WILL IT
GET COLD. 24 HOURS AGO, THE ECMWF SUITE WAS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION
AND NOT DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT IS NOW THE FASTEST WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THE GFS SUITE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS
TIMING WILL BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND MAY HAVE ANOTHER WRENCH THROWN INTO THE MIX ONCE WITHIN TIME
RANGE (84 HOURS) OF THE NAM WHICH OFTEN DOES A SUPERIOR JOB OF
HANDLING THE PACE OF THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES.
THE NEXT ACCOMPANYING FORECAST PROBLEM IS OF COURSE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIP, AND A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORMAL FORECAST FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BE
ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY,
WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF SUBFREEZING AIR BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
RESULTS IN A NORTH-SOUTH TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION PRESENTLY DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE
WILL ACTUALLY BE DUE TO A SECONDARY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BE EJECTING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. A ROBUST
OVERRUNNING REGIME WILL BE THE RESULT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND IF SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE TO BE BELIEVED, PERHAPS
EVEN INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT
IN A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER BELOW FREEZING FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD (PERHAPS ALL DAY SATURDAY FOR SOME AREAS),
RESULTING IN IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND/OR SNOW. IT WOULD
BE RATHER PREMATURE TO FURTHER DISCUSS PRECIP TYPES OR AMOUNTS
GIVEN THIS IS A DAY 5/6 FORECAST, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD
MAKE A P-TYPE TRANSITION ZONE RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
QUITE LIKELY WITH A SPATIAL GRADIENT OF IMPACTS DUE TO
COMBINATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPICT A WINTRY MIX WITH A GENERAL NORTH-
SOUTH GRADIENT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALSO INCLUDED ROUGHLY
NEAR/NORTH OF I-20 WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT A WARM NOSE WOULD COOL
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR FOLLOWING
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET.
AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARCTIC AIR ARRIVAL WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ALLOWING SCHOOL/WORK COMMUTES TO
CONCLUDE BEFORE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN COMMENCE. A WORSE (AND
STILL QUITE PLAUSIBLE) SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE SUBFREEZING AIR
TO ARRIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE EARLY
DISMISSALS OR RESULT IN A DETERIORATION OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DURING A FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND MAY NOT HAVE MORE CLARITY UNTIL WITHIN
RANGE OF THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE EXISTS AMONG GUIDANCE AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO CONCLUDE THAT THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST LEGITIMATE SHOT
AT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IN NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS SO FAR THIS
SEASON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AT METROPLEX
AIRPORTS, AND WILL ALSO GO NORTHEASTERLY AT WACO IN A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 33 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 64 30 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 25 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 63 30 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 27 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 32 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 60 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 63 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 29 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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