398
FXUS64 KFWD 200748
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A CHILLY NIGHT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20S TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, SO WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
NONETHELESS, YOU'LL CERTAINLY WANT TO BUNDLE UP BEFORE HEADING
OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING! COOL BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING OUR NORTHERN BORDER EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT, WITH ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, OTHER THAN TO SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO MID
60S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
BIG CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, AS A VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA AS EARLY
AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA, OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME, IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. THIS WILL CHANGE AS
WE GET LATER INTO THE DAY, WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECISE
TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN SINCE WE ARE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WHILE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING, THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN
EARLIER TRANSITION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, CONFIDENCE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IMPACTS TO ROADS AND INFRASTRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH ON SATURDAY AND COULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION TYPE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MESSY, AS A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE
NEAR/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR. PRECISE AMOUNTS FOR ANY
SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT
THIS FAR OUT SINCE THE LOCATION OF ANY TRANSITION ZONES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THESE DETAILS. THEREFORE, BE CAUTIOUS WITH
ANY ACCUMULATION INFORMATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS, AS
THESE DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY STILL SUBJECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE CARRIES SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LIKELY SEEING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. A STEADY NORTH BREEZE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR
ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AT THIS TIME. FORTUNATELY, WE SHOULD AT LEAST
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE TO ASSIST WITH THAWING OUT ANY LINGERING SNOW
AND/OR ICE, BUT ANY LIQUID LEFT ON THE ROADWAYS AT THE END OF THE
DAY WILL HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REFREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER, STAY
WEATHER AWARE AND UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST THIS WEEK
AS MANY OF THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR AND NORTH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THIS
MORNING/MIDDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 29 55 47 / 0 0 0 40
WACO 60 32 57 49 / 0 0 0 30
PARIS 48 26 54 42 / 0 0 0 50
DENTON 48 21 54 42 / 0 0 0 40
MCKINNEY 49 24 55 44 / 0 0 0 40
DALLAS 52 30 56 48 / 0 0 0 40
TERRELL 55 27 57 46 / 0 0 0 40
CORSICANA 60 33 60 49 / 0 0 0 30
TEMPLE 63 32 57 48 / 0 0 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 50 23 55 43 / 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page