409
FXUS64 KFWD 202010
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
210 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY
WARMING UP INTO THE 40S/50S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL TX.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING EAST TEXAS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
FRONT STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN CHANCES FOR TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, OTHER THAN TO SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO MID
60S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
BIG CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, AS A VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA AS EARLY
AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA, OVERRUNNING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AS THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME, IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. THIS WILL CHANGE AS
WE GET LATER INTO THE DAY, WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY HEADING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECISE
TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN SINCE WE ARE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WHILE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING, THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN
EARLIER TRANSITION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE AN IMPORTANT DETAIL TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, CONFIDENCE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION CONTINUES TO INCREASE. WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IMPACTS TO ROADS AND INFRASTRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MUCH ON SATURDAY AND COULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION TYPE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MESSY, AS A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE
NEAR/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR. PRECISE AMOUNTS FOR ANY
SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT
THIS FAR OUT SINCE THE LOCATION OF ANY TRANSITION ZONES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THESE DETAILS. THEREFORE, BE CAUTIOUS WITH
ANY ACCUMULATION INFORMATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTS, AS
THESE DETAILS ARE CERTAINLY STILL SUBJECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE CARRIES SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LIKELY SEEING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. A STEADY NORTH BREEZE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR
ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S AT THIS TIME. FORTUNATELY, WE SHOULD AT LEAST
HAVE SOME SUNSHINE TO ASSIST WITH THAWING OUT ANY LINGERING SNOW
AND/OR ICE, BUT ANY LIQUID LEFT ON THE ROADWAYS AT THE END OF THE
DAY WILL HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REFREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER, STAY
WEATHER AWARE AND UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST THIS WEEK
AS MANY OF THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE RETURN OF LOW
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS,
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, BUT
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS STAYING AROUND 5-8 KT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 63 43 61 / 40 30 0 0
WACO 51 65 48 66 / 30 50 0 0
PARIS 45 58 41 56 / 60 60 10 10
DENTON 45 63 36 59 / 30 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 47 62 40 59 / 50 40 0 10
DALLAS 50 63 46 63 / 40 40 0 10
TERRELL 47 62 44 61 / 50 60 10 10
CORSICANA 51 65 49 66 / 40 70 10 10
TEMPLE 51 67 47 68 / 30 40 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 45 64 37 63 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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