357
FXUS64 KFWD 210709
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE
WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN LOW. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
AND THE BIG COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUS COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NOT ONLY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION BUT ALSO
THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER.
WHAT'S NEW WITH THIS FORECAST:
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EFFECTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO PUT OUT SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, MODERATE TO
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WHAT WE KNOW:
- LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE INTRUSION OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH A MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(THANKS TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE WEST) RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE MORNING, STEADILY DECREASING DURING THE DAY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES.
- THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE A RAIN AND WINTRY MIX
PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FULL TRANSITION TO
A MIX OF SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
- WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL END, THE IMPACTS DUE TO DANGEROUS
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IF WE WARM A LITTLE
BIT ON MONDAY IT WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
TEENS MONDAY NIGHT.
WHAT STILL UNCERTAIN:
- WHEN THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE FREEZING LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO COVER THIS PERIOD.
- WHILE YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW SHOWING
HIGHER SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAN WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD,
BE CAUTIOUS AND DON'T FOCUS ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS YET. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NEW DATA ARRIVES.
WHAT TO DO:
- OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOCUS YOUR ATTENTION ON HOW TO PREPARE
YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS, ESPECIALLY THOSE UNPROTECTED PIPES. MAKE
SURE TO CHECK ON FRIENDS AND FAMILY, AND CONSIDER ALTERING
WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
- START THINKING ABOUT EARLY WEEK PLANS AS WELL, AS TRAVEL IMPACTS
MAY STILL LINGER BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP, BUT ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. IN NORTH TEXAS,
ANY IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE INTERMITTENT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO D10 TERMINALS
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
AROUND 19-20Z FOR KACT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THEN,
WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH FROPA, WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 47 62 39 / 0 40 30 0
WACO 57 51 63 44 / 0 30 50 0
PARIS 55 42 59 37 / 0 60 60 0
DENTON 53 41 62 31 / 0 30 20 0
MCKINNEY 54 44 62 34 / 0 50 30 0
DALLAS 55 48 64 41 / 0 40 40 0
TERRELL 57 46 63 38 / 0 50 60 0
CORSICANA 60 51 64 42 / 0 40 70 0
TEMPLE 57 49 66 42 / 0 30 40 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 42 63 33 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...BARNES
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