039
FXUS64 KFWD 211912
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO COULD
RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. EXTREME COLD
WILL BECOME LIFE THREATENING TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF BROKEN PIPES
AND WATER DAMAGE DUE TO A A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MAKE WINTER PREPARATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW!
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES, CLOUDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THEY
LIFT/SCATTER OUT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER
60S FOR MANY AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING
THE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS DUE TO WEAKER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING KEEPING THE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS OUR AREA TOMORROW, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
WHAT'S CHANGED?
- PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE STARTING TO COME INTO FOCUS WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
TRANSITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WHAT WE KNOW:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO
A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, IN THE METROPLEX AROUND MID
AFTERNOON, AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
- A WARM NOSE WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BENEATH THE WARM NOSE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO
PRIMARILY SLEET. A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE RED RIVER.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SLEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY. ONE FINAL ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
TRANSITION LINE TO SNOW LIKELY DIPPING FURTHER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION HAS A 50-80%
CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLDEST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING, FALLING TO 0 TO -10 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL MONDAY AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT'S STILL UNCERTAIN:
- HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY, AND HOW SOON IMPACTS WILL BEGIN ONCE THE TRANSITION
OCCURS.
- THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITIONS.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE, AS THESE WILL DEPEND ON WHEN, WHERE,
AND HOW QUICKLY ANY TRANSITIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
SNOW OCCUR.
WHAT TO DO:
- MAKE YOUR PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME NOW. ENSURE YOU PROTECT ANY EXPOSED
PIPES, AND CHECK IN WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY.
- CONSIDER ALTERING ANY TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
- START THINKING ABOUT YOUR PLANS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS TRAVEL IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CONCERNS...LOW CEILINGS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR LIFT/SCATTER OUT THE
REST OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW
10 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE REST OF THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING THE
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/VSBY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT KACT ARE
HIGH, BUT FOR THE DFW METROPLEX SITES REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM. FOR
NOW, WE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
THEY LIFT/SCATTER OUT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 42 61 43 / 20 0 0 40
WACO 64 46 64 51 / 40 0 0 20
PARIS 59 37 54 39 / 50 0 0 40
DENTON 62 35 59 38 / 10 0 0 40
MCKINNEY 61 38 59 40 / 30 0 0 40
DALLAS 63 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 40
TERRELL 61 41 61 42 / 50 0 0 40
CORSICANA 63 46 65 49 / 60 0 0 30
TEMPLE 67 45 67 52 / 40 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 62 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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