468
FXUS64 KFWD 212052
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO COULD
RESULT IN HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. EXTREME COLD
WILL BECOME LIFE THREATENING TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF BROKEN PIPES
AND WATER DAMAGE DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MAKE WINTER PREPARATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW!
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES, CLOUDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THEY
LIFT/SCATTER OUT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID/UPPER
60S FOR MANY AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING
THE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S) FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS DUE TO WEAKER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING KEEPING THE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS OUR AREA TOMORROW, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
...WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION AND DANGEROUS COLD LIKELY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHAT CHANGED:
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION:
OUR ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND SYSTEM AS A
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT MUCH
HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE VERY COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS LATER IN THE DAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
WINTRY MIX (PREDOMINATELY SLEET) ALONG THE RED RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TRANSITION SHOULD STEADILY SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NORTH TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL TEXAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
MULTIPLE ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SLEET) WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG SYNOPTIC
ASCENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION. WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE THE
PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS OUR REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY, EVEN AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED. WE'RE LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 TO 10
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
WHILE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ON
MONDAY, PREPARE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHAT'S STILL UNCERTAIN:
AS EXPECTED, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN RAIN
WILL GIVE WAY TO WINTRY PRECIP FOR EACH LOCATION AND THE EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR EACH P-TYPE. NOW THAT WE'RE IN THE
REALM OF MEDIUM-RES (AND EVENTUALLY HIGH-RES) MODEL GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WHAT VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES MIGHT
LOOK LIKE OVER THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SLEET WILL LIKELY BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A RANGE OF SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS, BE
AWARE THAT THOSE WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS NEW DATA ARRIVES. WHILE
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT JUST YET.
WHAT TO DO:
- CONTINUE YOUR WINTER WEATHER PREPARATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
PREPARE YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS, ESPECIALLY THOSE UNPROTECTED
PIPES. MAKE SURE TO CHECK ON FRIENDS AND FAMILY, AND CONSIDER
DELAYING WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
- DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT, FACE MASK, AND GLOVES IF YOU
MUST GO OUTSIDE. ENSURE PORTABLE HEATERS ARE USED CORRECTLY. DO
NOT USE GENERATORS OR GRILLS INSIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CONCERNS...LOW CEILINGS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR LIFT/SCATTER OUT THE
REST OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW
10 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE REST OF THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING KEEPING THE
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/VSBY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT KACT ARE
HIGH, BUT FOR THE DFW METROPLEX SITES REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM. FOR
NOW, WE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
THEY LIFT/SCATTER OUT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 42 61 43 / 20 0 0 40
WACO 64 46 64 51 / 40 0 0 20
PARIS 59 37 54 39 / 50 0 0 40
DENTON 62 35 59 38 / 10 0 0 40
MCKINNEY 61 38 59 40 / 30 0 0 40
DALLAS 63 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 40
TERRELL 61 41 61 42 / 50 0 0 40
CORSICANA 63 46 65 49 / 60 0 0 30
TEMPLE 67 45 67 52 / 40 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 62 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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