032
FXUS64 KFWD 041848
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAIN.
- SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
ONWARD, WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30% RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ARE ONGOING ALONG THE WESTERN RED RIVER
COUNTIES AS OF MIDDAY WITH MOST OF THIS NOT MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. THIS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRIMARILY STAYING ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND MORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
REMAINS OUT EAST. AFTER YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, TODAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUICK SHOT AT SPRINKLES
TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING SETTLING
IN BEHIND IT. TODAY'S CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE NIGHT,
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR SOME VERY
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. NONE OF THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OR DENSE, WITH ANY FOG CLEARING
OUT AROUND 8-9 AM. THE DRY, W/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EXPANDING
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE WARM AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS, WITH A QUICK JUMP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION.
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT "COOLDOWN"
FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S.
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
CURRENTLY SITS AT NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL FUEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL
START TO CHANGE AS ANY FINER FUELS THAT BECAME SATURATED DURING
THE WINTER EVENT START TO DRY OUT. LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY SHOULD
PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, BUT THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY DROPS TO ~20-25% THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE GET A MODEST AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OVERLAPPING WITH THE LIFT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-30%
POPS) AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY TRULY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FROM ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF IT. THROUGH DAY 7, THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY A 10-20%
CHANCE OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.25", WITH LESS MODEL SPREAD
NOW EXISTING IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. UNSURPRISINGLY,
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK
LIKE AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL GET ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 8 TO 13 KTS, DIMINISHING AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AND REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS BEFORE
PICKING UP IN SPEED TO NEAR 8 TO 13 KTS AGAIN IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING EASTERN D10 SITES AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH
FUTURE ISSUANCES. OTHERWISE, NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 36 68 45 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 60 36 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 54 31 63 40 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 57 31 68 39 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 33 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 36 67 45 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 33 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 36 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 62 35 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 32 70 40 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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