149
FXUS64 KFWD 051814
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A QUIET, MILD, AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE
BUILDING IN TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH
RIDGING SET TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE TODAY ARE
ADVECTING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A NOTABLY WARMER DAY TOMORROW,
WITH FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNDERNEATH SUNNY
SKIES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20%
NEAR/WEST OF U.S. 281; HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL QUICKLY BE
DISRUPTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT, WITH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES LIKELY TO SEE FROPA IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STILL
ISN'T SIGNIFICANT, SATURDAY'S HIGHS WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NOTABLE INTRUSION OF
COOLER AIR THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS, INTO THE LOW 70S STILL FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MODERATING THE COOLER AIRMASS AND SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A RENEWED WARMING TREND. ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY OUT WEST, WITH UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR/WEST OF I-35.
A CLOSED BAJA LOW ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY START SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO, WEAKENING AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE EARLY WEEK. TIMING DISCREPANCIES ARE
STILL NOTABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION
BEING A FEW SHOWERS OUT WEST MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 40%
POPS ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 10% OF THE LREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SCENARIO OF A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION
TO DRAWING BETTER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD
ALSO RESULT IN A STRONG STORM OR TWO, BUT EVEN WITH THIS,
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. THE OVERWHELMING SOLUTION DEPICTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING, WITH A
FEW LUCKY AREAS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING RAIN AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN
0.25". HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKING TO APPROACH SOMETIME IN THE
VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
GENERALLY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-13 KTS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS STILL AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 45 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 68 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 65 42 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 68 40 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 67 42 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 68 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 67 42 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 68 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 69 42 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 40 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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