640
FXUS64 KFWD 061137
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRY
AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN RURAL AREAS. ON
FRIDAY, WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BENEATH A
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL SEND HIGHS SOARING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL DIP AS LOW AS 20-25% WEST OF
US-281, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL FOR NOW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING, REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE AIR TO THE REGION SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TO LOW/MID 70S
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY, AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT'S INFLUENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE
AND WARMTH BEGIN BUILDING BACK IN BY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A MODEST WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA COAST, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND
60S BY MONDAY. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35 WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER TOTALS
CLOSER TO 0.25" CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BEYOND TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GROWING SUPPORT FOR
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SOMETIME DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND MOISTURE QUALITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY, GRADUALLY
VEERING TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING. A MORE DEFINED
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL SETTLE IN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8-10 KT. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 44 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 76 40 62 44 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 38 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 79 45 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 79 41 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 81 46 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 81 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 81 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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