793
FXUS64 KFWD 061823
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO SOME GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-50% RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLOUD FREE SKIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH THE WARMTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, IT WON'T BE PARTICULARLY COLD. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH MAY ADD A LITTLE CHILL TO THE OVERNIGHT AIR,
BUT OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 40S TONIGHT.
OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS CAN GO CALM MAY SEE SOME READINGS IN
THE 30S. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE
READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S AREAWIDE.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. AHEAD OF
THIS, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT AND BEGIN TO
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WE'LL NOTICE A STEADY INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. WHILE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, MOISTURE QUALITY WILL ONLY BE
MODEST AT BEST WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERING AND
PUSHING THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OFF TO OUR EAST
PRETTY QUICKLY. WHILE THERE STILL SHOULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DURING THIS EVENT. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND TAPERING OFF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD, NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 44 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 40 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 38 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 40 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 45 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 79 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 80 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 80 43 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 80 40 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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