614
FXUS64 KFWD 071834
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO SOME GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST. DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
STAYING IN THE 70S. COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALOFT.
WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL. AS A RESULT, TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S AND TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35 MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WILL
KEEP THE THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD THIS UPCOMING
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT -- GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL LIKELY STALL/WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING
NORTH TEXAS. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ALMOST EVERY DAY THIS
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK. DESPITE THE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, MORE THAN HALF OF THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WORTH MONITORING, AS IT
COULD REPRESENT OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND
THE RETURN OF COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. WE COULD SEE SOME LLWS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES (MAINLY NEAR THE RED RIVER).
OTHERWISE, COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 76 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 66 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 71 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 71 49 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 72 52 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 72 49 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 50 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 77 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 76 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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