133
FXUS64 KFWD 081137
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO SOME GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. A
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA GRADUALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY THICK CIRRUS CANOPY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT, AND WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT THE MID-LEVEL PROFILE
MAY GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PATCHY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES MANAGE TO
REACH THE GROUND WILL BE SPOTTY AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST, GRADUALLY
DRAWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS,
INCLUDING THE BRAZOS VALLEY WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONGEST. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND NEAR-CALM WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MEANINGFUL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY NORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TODAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOW 80S
POSSIBLE WEST OF I-35 WHERE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF FILTERED INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED. A SIMILAR SETUP WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY, THOUGH A DENSER FIELD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD
BLUNT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT. EVEN SO, MOST AREAS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. WHILE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
REMAINS LIMITED OVERALL, THE COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY AIR AND
MODESTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
LOCALIZED ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF I-35.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNDER A SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN,
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE DAY,
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH MOISTURE QUALITY STILL LIMITED
AND THE SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A SHORT-LIVED RETURN TO QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS.
BY LATE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WHILE THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. UNTIL
THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY
NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY PERIODICALLY TEMPER AFTERNOON
WARMTH, BUT THE UNSEASONABLY MILD PATTERN IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
8-12 KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. A MIX OF SCT/BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 12
KFT. A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SPRINKLES SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. WHILE RADAR MAY SHOW RETURNS IN THE VICINITY,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OR
CEILING REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 443 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 51 80 59 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 79 54 81 59 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 73 49 77 59 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 78 46 79 56 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 49 79 58 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 78 53 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 51 80 58 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 79 54 82 59 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 79 51 82 56 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 82 47 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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