518
FXUS64 KFWD 082314
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS NOTED. CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE AROUND 12,000 FT WITH A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER NOTED ON
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN EVAPORATING BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND, BUT WE STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM IN ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW 50S
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS MAY VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
PRIOR TO ANY ADVECTION FOG SPREADING INTO THE REGION. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL BEING TO EJECT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO
TUESDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SPREADING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WE DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, SO DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS, A LACK OF A HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WE'LL KEEP POPS AT 20-40% ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND CLEARING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A BETTER START EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO OUR MOISTURE PROFILE, THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE
IT'LL BRING A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS BY THE WEEKEND. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS, BUT FOR NOW HAVE SOME RELATIVELY HIGH POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
AT 5-10 KTS, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS AS A DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW
PASSES THROUGH. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WINDOW SHOULD BE LESS THAN
~4 KTS, BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY WIND RESUMES TOWARDS
MIDDAY. ANOTHER SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 81 59 77 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 53 83 58 75 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 48 78 58 75 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 45 80 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 49 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 52 81 61 77 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 51 81 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 55 84 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 84 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 47 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUNN
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...STALLEY
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