629
FXUS64 KFWD 090636
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% RETURN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AS THE
REGION REMAINS BENEATH A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE POSITIONED
BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW STALLED NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ALOFT WITHIN THE WESTERLY
FLOW. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN
DIP BELOW 30% WEST OF US-281, HOWEVER MODEST WIND SPEEDS AND
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT EASTWARD, OPENING UP INTO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CONCURRENTLY, A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
TIED TO THE STRONGER NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRENGTHENING ASCENT, LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL RESTRICT RAIN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY BEGIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, POPS REMAIN IN THE 20-40% RANGE, AND
QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST
AREAS. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD.
WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE PRE-
EXISTING/RETURNING MOISTURE AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND LIKELY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
THAN TUESDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS SETUP COULD ALSO BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING AND POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS ARE STILL BEING
WORKED OUT. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MORE ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED END TO THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF CALM OR
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED BEFORE A LIGHT FLOW
RESUMES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AOA
FL120. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSELY CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS, SO NO VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 59 77 53 / 0 0 10 30
WACO 84 59 76 57 / 0 0 10 30
PARIS 79 59 76 55 / 0 0 10 40
DENTON 81 56 77 47 / 0 0 10 40
MCKINNEY 81 58 76 51 / 0 0 10 40
DALLAS 82 61 78 55 / 0 0 10 30
TERRELL 81 58 77 54 / 0 0 10 30
CORSICANA 84 60 79 58 / 0 0 10 20
TEMPLE 85 56 77 55 / 0 0 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 84 56 79 47 / 0 0 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page