568
FXUS64 KFWD 100628
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WEST OF I-35 WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GRASS FIRE THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CLOUDY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF A (SO FAR) NEARLY STATIONARY
CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. DESPITE
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT, A PERSISTENTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INSUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SATURATION,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY
DAYTIME PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
WHILE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION IMPROVES.
THIS WINDOW WILL OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN,
BUT EVEN THEN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPOTS TOTALING CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WHILE
OTHERS MISS OUT ON MEASURABLE PRECIP ENTIRELY.
THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER
SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR LEANS EARLIER,
BRINGING THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE METROPLEX AS EARLY AS 3-5 PM,
WHILE THE OTHER CAMS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL,
PUSHING FROPA CLOSER TO 6 PM. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING, A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE, LEADING TO A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. MORNINGS
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE ORGANIZED CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MODEST FOR NOW, THE
PRESENCE OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR COULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
TX. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN AND
TIMING, DETAILS REMAIN TO BE IRONED OUT BUT THE OVERALL TREND
FAVORS A SHARP UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY WHICH COULD
IMPACT OUTDOOR PLANS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 12-16 KTS AT METROPLEX TERMINALS AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION, TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 22-00Z AT
D10 TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 03Z AT KACT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 00-06Z, NECESSITATING THE INCLUSION OF VCSH AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN REACHING WACO REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT, RADAR RETURNS MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALOFT, RESULTING IN VIRGA. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LOCALIZED TURBULENCE NEAR DEVELOPING SHOWERS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 50 67 49 / 10 60 0 0
WACO 74 54 72 51 / 10 30 10 0
PARIS 75 51 69 46 / 20 50 10 0
DENTON 76 44 67 43 / 20 60 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 48 67 46 / 10 60 10 0
DALLAS 77 52 69 50 / 10 60 10 0
TERRELL 76 50 69 47 / 10 50 10 0
CORSICANA 77 55 72 51 / 10 40 10 0
TEMPLE 75 51 73 51 / 10 30 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 45 69 44 / 30 60 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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