670
FXUS64 KFWD 101815
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WEST OF I-35 MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW GRASS FIRE THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EMERGE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED LIFT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE
STATE, WIDESPREAD VIRGA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THIS IS HIGH-BASED (AROUND 10-12 KFT) WITH A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EVAPORATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A TRANSITION FROM VIRGA
TO RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AS TOP-DOWN SATURATION IS ACHIEVED.
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THE SHOWERS WON'T PRODUCE
MUCH RAINFALL - ONLY AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST FOR SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUMING AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
70S AND 80S. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER, BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ARE SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
(BE PREPARED FOR A RAINY VALENTINE'S DAY!). MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN
TO MUCH OF THE REGION. CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING TO BE
BETWEEN 1" AND 2.5" ON AVERAGE. WHILE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SHEAR IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN THIS AREA IF THIS OCCURS, AND THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. WE'LL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FINAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE. THEREFORE, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARMING TREND
WILL LIKELY TRANSPIRE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VIRGA CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 10-12 KFT AGL.
INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH
WIND SHIFT TO D10 TERMINALS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
FROPA IS EXPECTED AROUND 04Z FOR KACT, WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 05-06Z TONIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 67 49 79 / 60 0 0 10
WACO 54 72 51 80 / 30 10 0 0
PARIS 51 69 46 75 / 50 10 0 10
DENTON 44 67 43 78 / 60 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 48 67 46 77 / 60 10 0 10
DALLAS 52 69 50 80 / 60 10 0 10
TERRELL 50 69 47 78 / 50 10 0 10
CORSICANA 55 72 51 80 / 40 10 0 10
TEMPLE 51 73 51 80 / 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 45 69 44 82 / 60 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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