855
FXUS64 KFWD 111136
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS.
- A LOW GRASS FIRE THREAT MAY EMERGE WEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE INCREASING HUMIDITY REDUCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST AREAS RECEIVED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT
BEST, WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY ENDING UP WITH ONLY SPRINKLES OR
TRACES. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COOLER BUT STILL WARMER THAN
NORMAL AFTERNOON EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY.
WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. THIS SHIFT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AND OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
WILL DEEPEN AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE WEST COAST BEFORE EJECTING
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODEST, GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO HINT AT
MUCAPE VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS THE SURFACE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE
A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
BACK OVERHEAD. LOOKING AHEAD TO MIDWEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A RENEWED TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WHILE TIMING AND EVOLUTION DETAILS DIFFER, THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEYOND DAY 7.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS. A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT SKIES WILL TREND MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 47 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 70 49 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 67 44 70 51 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 66 41 75 51 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 67 45 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 68 48 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 68 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 71 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 72 47 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 68 42 79 52 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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