974
FXUS64 KFWD 111808
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE)
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. FOLLOWING ANOTHER COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S, THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 70S AREAWIDE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THREAT FOR GRASSFIRES FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORTUNATELY, WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD
SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP. INCREASING HUMIDITY TOMORROW WILL KEEP
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
OUR NEXT RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER RAINY VALENTINE'S DAY, SO ENSURE YOU'RE
MONITORING THE WEATHER, AND PLAN FOR DISRUPTIONS TO ANY OUTDOOR
PLANS.
NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING
BETWEEN 1/2" AND 2". THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
THE MOST PLENTIFUL. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER TOTALS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. REASONABLE
HIGH-END AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE UPWARDS OF 2.5-3".
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REDEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THE
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MITIGATION OF ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF
OUR FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND MORE ON HOW QUICKLY ANY
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY URBAN AREAS.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT THIS THREAT IS RATHER CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THREAT LOW OVERALL, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE ANY SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY NOT ALIGN WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ISN'T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW INTENSE THESE STORMS WILL BE, BUT
AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS THREAT WOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BUT COULD EXTEND TOWARDS THE RED RIVER DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
HOWEVER, THE COOL-DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO THE 70S AND 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING
BELOW 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD VEER OUT OF THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
RETURNING MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND
5 TO 7 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 47 76 56 78 / 0 0 10 20
WACO 49 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 44 70 51 73 / 0 0 10 30
DENTON 41 75 51 77 / 0 0 10 20
MCKINNEY 45 74 53 77 / 0 0 10 20
DALLAS 48 76 58 78 / 0 0 10 20
TERRELL 45 75 53 79 / 0 0 10 20
CORSICANA 49 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 47 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 42 79 52 79 / 0 0 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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