855
FXUS64 KFWD 260657
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TODAY WEST
OF US-281, BUT LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
- WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
AN OVERALL TRANQUIL PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE CURRENTLY BISECT THE
REGION GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WHERE BOTH A DEWPOINT
GRADIENT AND WIND SHIFT CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS CONFINED, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK. AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS, SHUNTING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
EVEN WITH FROPA, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK IN THE 70S AND
80S TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS NEAREST
THE SURFACE LOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT FUELS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS PARTICULARLY WEST
OF US-281, HOWEVER MODEST WINDS WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S REGION-WIDE
ON SATURDAY, 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY IN
FEBRUARY AND AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, ONLY A FEW DEGREES SHY
OF RECORD VALUES.
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THE EXPECTED
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GREATEST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WHEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS. IT IS TOO
EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR ANY SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON TIMING/LOCATIONS, SO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST.
ONE LAST THING OF NOTE IS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS QUITE A TEMPERATURE DIP
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE UPPER 70S/MID
80S TO THE MID 60S/MID 70S. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OR STALL TO
OUR NORTH, WITH ONLY AROUND 20-30% OF CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWING A FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
ALL THIS BEING SAID: THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WINDS ACROSS D10 AIRPORTS MAY BE CALM AT TIMES, OR COME IN AT
SOUTH FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS AT D10 WILL
EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH. ACT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL
DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY MVFR VIS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SE
TEXAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH. WHILE MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT DFW/DAL/GKY BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING. THE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY LOWER AT ACT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
HAVE ANOTHER LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR BETWEEN 15-17Z. I HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF MVFR IN THE ACT TAF, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON SPEEDS AROUND 11 KT, LESSENING TO AROUND 5
KT OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 52 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 78 48 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 80 45 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 81 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 52 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 82 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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