061
FXUS64 KFWD 262347
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN ALONG THE RED RIVER ON SUNDAY, THEN
OCCUR PERIODICALLY AREA-WIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN BENEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME THROUGH TOMORROW, AS THE CONUS REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN A
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST. A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE HELPING DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ALL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE OTHER THAN A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS WILL
BE FELT WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
80S, ALONG WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES DEVELOP UPSTREAM, IN WHAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE. UNFORTUNATELY,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN WHETHER OR NOT THE WEEKEND FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WILL TRY TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED AS A DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST,
WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE FRONT, WARRANTING LOW POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY. HEDGING
TOWARDS THE FRONT STALLING SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, WILL KEEP
THESE POPS FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE WEST COAST
LOW EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW GETS KICKED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER, BRINGING MORE RAIN
CHANCES NEXT FRIDAY. MID RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL PERSIST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALREADY EASING BELOW 10 KT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME TERMINALS BRIEFLY BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (BETWEEN
16-18Z) WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR 5-10 KT.
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ANY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF AIRPORTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 79 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 49 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 46 78 51 83 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 48 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 53 80 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 79 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 82 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 48 80 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12
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