761
FXUS64 KFWD 271100
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE RED RIVER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- BETTER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE DURING THE
DAY, RETURNING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING, AND WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO BONHAM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE
IS LOW (<15%) DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION, BUT WE WILL BE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO REVEAL THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED, AND THE
LOW LEVELS IN PARTICULAR WILL BE PRETTY DRY; BARELY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT EVEN SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND IF SHOWERS DID OCCUR.
HOWEVER, IF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TODAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THIS DEVELOPMENT, POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE VERY WARM DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE IS ACTUALLY ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
THAT LOCATIONS AROUND YOUNG AND STEPHENS COUNTIES REACH 90 DEGREES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT BOTH
DFW AND WACO APPEAR TO BE SAFE BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
REGISTERING 10-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. FORTUNATELY
MOISTURE RETURN WILL SURGE NORTH WITH THE WINDS RESULTING IN RH
VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT THAT WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, FIRE STARTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE DRY FUEL CONDITIONS THAT ARE STILL PRESENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MOVE FROM OKLAHOMA INTO THE RED RIVER AREA
OF TEXAS, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
OKLAHOMA.
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA MAY BARELY NUDGE INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN OR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING,
BUT IT WON'T RESIDE THERE FOR LONG AS IT QUICKLY RETREATS NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. HOWEVER,
WITH THE FRONT NEARBY, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ITS VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
INTO THE PLAINS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SEND A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
STARTING TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS, MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AND THUS RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS MAY BE IN PLACE WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST
A MINIMAL SEVERE STORM THREAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, A
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP, AND THERE'S A LOW CHANCE SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO FORM, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IF ISOLATED SHOWERS FORM
OVERNIGHT, THE MOSTLY LIKELY TIMING WOULD BE 08-11Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 56 84 59 / 0 10 10 10
WACO 81 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 52 80 57 / 0 0 10 20
DENTON 78 51 83 56 / 0 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 78 53 82 57 / 0 10 10 10
DALLAS 80 57 85 61 / 0 10 10 10
TERRELL 80 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 83 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 82 52 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 81 51 86 56 / 0 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLDUNN
LONG TERM....JLDUNN
AVIATION...JLDUNN
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