690
FXUS64 KFWD 280006
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
RED RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THIS WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, ALLOWING MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. DESPITE THIS,
HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 10% POPS TO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE
OFF CHANCE ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
A COUPLE OF WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE ON TAP BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20
MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. A FEW AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY
WILL HAVE A 50-60% CHANCE OF SURPASSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE HEADING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH,
SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. WE'LL MAINTAIN
SOME LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES NEAR THE RED RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE EVENT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY SKIRTS ALONG OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD BY ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE HEADING
INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME PERIOD AS THE FOUR CORNERS SYSTEM EJECTS
INTO THE PLAINS, SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY OR PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD) ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
VARIABLES AT PLAY THAT MAKE THE THREAT RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. WHILE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THESE VARIABLES
WILL ALIGN WITH EACH OTHER IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE AS WELL AS WITH
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE,
IT'S STILL A BIT EARLY TO DETERMINE IF AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, AND WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL GUIDANCE
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE
VARIABLES AT PLAY.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RIDE THE HEELS OF THE MID-
WEEK SYSTEM, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT OUR ACTIVE
PATTERN TO CONTINUE, POTENTIALLY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST
INTO THE MS VALLEY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL FURTHER VEER
TO THE SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SHORTLY AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. VFR WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS
A RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 84 60 82 / 10 10 10 10
WACO 54 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 52 79 56 78 / 10 10 10 10
DENTON 52 83 55 80 / 10 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 54 81 57 80 / 10 10 20 10
DALLAS 58 84 60 83 / 10 10 10 10
TERRELL 54 83 57 81 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 87 56 83 / 10 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...30/MB
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