115
FXUS64 KFWD 280640
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NORTH OF
I-20 THIS WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE REGION AS A LITTLE BIT OF LIFT
MOVES OVERHEAD. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL CARRY A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER APPEARS EVEN LOWER AS FORECAST
LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK, BUT ALSO LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, ONLY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
GROUND.
SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 HAVE A >50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 DUE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY WINDS, AND WE WILL ISSUE
A GRASSFIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SATURDAY NIGHT, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA, APPROACHING THE
RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER, AND WILL KEEP THE 20% MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THAT
GENERAL AREA. HOWEVER, MOST OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE FRONT WILL EDGE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES STARTING SUNDAY
AND STALL ACROSS THAT AREA. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S, BUT MONDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE A
COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE 303-306K LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER STILL LOOKS VERY LOW IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TRENDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED; IN PARTICULAR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
WEEK. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT MAY PROLONG OUR RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXTENT OF THOSE
DETAILS WON'T BE CONFIRMED OR IRONED OUT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH
OF RAIN OVERALL, BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND BEYOND WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD RELIEF FROM
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SOME HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INITIATE ISOLATED
ELEVATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAVE VCSH
OUT OF THE TAFS, AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS APPEARS PRETTY LOW
LOOKING AT THE DEEP DRY LAYER ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL MAKE QUICK AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED WITH THE
TIMING POTENTIAL FROM 08-11Z.
OTHERWISE, IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE NORTH, BUT SHOULD NOT REACH KACT, AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING, JUST BEYOND THIS
TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 59 82 56 / 20 10 10 10
WACO 83 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 82 56 79 55 / 10 20 10 20
DENTON 83 55 81 53 / 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY 82 56 81 54 / 20 20 10 20
DALLAS 84 60 82 59 / 20 10 10 10
TERRELL 82 56 82 54 / 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA 85 58 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 85 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 87 55 83 53 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLDUNN
LONG TERM....JLDUNN
AVIATION...JLDUNN
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