752
FXUS64 KFWD 011142
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 380 TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING INCREASES NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER
TODAY (TO OUR NORTH). WHY AM I TALKING ABOUT IT IF THE STORMS ARE
IN OKLAHOMA? WELL, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERNMOST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WE'RE NOT
COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA (THE BETTER FORCING IS TO OUR NORTH),
BUT IT'S WORTH AT LEAST MENTIONING AS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIVE REGIME HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STALLED FRONT TO OUR
NORTH IN OKLAHOMA MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY
MONDAY, BUT IT SHOULD WASH OUT AND RETREAT NORTH BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, TODAY AND TOMORROW'S WEATHER SHOULD BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 (+/- A FEW
DEGREES) AND LOWS AROUND 60 (+/- A FEW DEGREES). THE MAIN CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER WILL BE THE MARKED INCREASE OF HUMIDITY COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL DAMPEN THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
ALSO, EXPECT PATCHES OF STRATUS BOTH MORNINGS THAT GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380 TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOST OF TODAY, PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP LARGELY AS A RESULT OF A FAINT
ZONE OF ASCENT BETWEEN ~800-600 MB. PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ARE CAPPED AT 20% AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT SHOULD MOVE WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WE BRIEFLY MENTIONED THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH. IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND START TO ADVANCE SOUTH
TONIGHT. WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO--AND OVERTOP
OF--THE FRONT AND HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE (30-40%) IT MOVES INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF IT DOES, THEN
THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IF
IT DOES NOT, THEN RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20%.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST NUDGES INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/MONDAY'S VALUES, BUT THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES. AS A RESULT, WE MAY RE-INTRODUCE AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR A FEW OF OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, MARKED BY A FEW RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE FIRST
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO BRIEFLY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL OUT PACE THE
FRONT AND ALLOW IT TO STALL AND WASH OUT PRETTY QUICK. EVEN WITH
THE FRONT STALLING WELL NW OF D/FW, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE FROM THE FORCING ALOFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS. THE MAIN IMPACT BROUGHT ABOUT BY THIS SYSTEM IS
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. MEDIAN RAIN AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ARE
BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1" OF RAIN, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTHEAST
AND LOWER AMOUNTS WEST. THERE IS ALSO A LOW THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WE STILL NEED SOME KIND OF
ASCENT TO GET PARCELS PAST THE LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION. THIS WILL BE
DIFFICULT WITHOUT THE FRONT, BUT THERE WILL BE LESS INHIBITION
FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ELEVATED LAPSE RATES ALOFT, THERE
IS A LOW THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED HAIL STORMS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS AND A HIGHER (...BUT STILL LOW) SEVERE THREAT FURTHER
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER-PRODUCING SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND/OR NEXT WEEKEND. IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING
AND FINER DETAILS, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE "ACTIVE"
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AT SOME POINT. SINCE WE'LL BE ABOUT A WEEK INTO STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, IT SHOULDN'T TAKE MUCH LIFT TO
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTALS NEXT WEEKEND
SHOULD BY-IN-LARGE BE HIGHER THAN THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS, WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE
OVER ~0.75" OF RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM. IT'S TOO SOON TO GET
INTO POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS, BUT JUST KNOW THAT AS OF TODAY, IT
IS SPRING IN TEXAS, SO ITS BEST TO BE AWARE OF A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN TAKING HOLD OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A BLANKET OF LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
D10 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS A LITTLE
RAGGED, SO THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VFR, BUT WE STILL OPTED TO KEEP
A SIMPLIFIED MESSAGE OF PREVAILING MVFR. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AND SCATTER LATER THIS MORNING WITH VFR AND SOUTH FLOW PREVAILING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SURGE OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WE WEREN'T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE D10 TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED/SPARSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF DFW. THEY SHOULD
NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY, BUT MARGINAL IMPACTS TO THE
BOWIE CORNERPOST DURING THE EVENING PUSH ARE POSSIBLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 59 81 62 / 10 10 10 0
WACO 81 59 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 56 77 59 / 10 20 10 0
DENTON 80 57 80 58 / 10 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 80 57 79 60 / 10 20 10 0
DALLAS 81 60 81 63 / 10 10 10 0
TERRELL 81 56 81 60 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 84 58 83 62 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 83 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 58 82 58 / 10 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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