915
FXUS64 KFWD 011854
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% CHANCE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380 THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
IT WAS A CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WARM AND
BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND SOUTHERLY 10-20 MPH WINDS.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN BORDER THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
STALLING, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH IT. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT/DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH TODAY'S UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES,
AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT ITS EXACT
LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS TONIGHT. AREAS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. A
FEW OF OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL
TO NEAR 30%, RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES. HIGHER
HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE THREAT BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL
BE TAKEN TO PREVENT ANY WILDFIRE STARTS.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SLATED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, BUT WEAKER ASCENT
COULD LIMIT BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IT'S POSSIBLE
THURSDAY ENDS UP BEING MOSTLY RAIN-FREE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AMONG
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING AS WELL, BUT
THE EXTENT OF ANY FLOOD THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCCESSIVE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. EITHER WAY, ENSURE YOU'RE MONITORING
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, AS OUR ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY HERE TO
STAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FINALLY LIFTING AND SCATTERING ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR HAS RETURNED TO KACT, AND D10 TERMINALS SHOULD FOLLOW
SUIT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, WITH NO WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED FOR THE METROPLEX. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT AS IT ENTERS NORTH TEXAS, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ON MONDAY NEAR 8-12 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 81 62 84 / 10 10 0 0
WACO 59 79 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 56 77 59 80 / 20 10 0 10
DENTON 57 80 58 83 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 79 60 82 / 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 60 81 63 85 / 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 56 81 60 83 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 58 83 62 86 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 59 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 58 82 58 87 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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