178
FXUS64 KFWD 021841
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1241 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT ROUGHLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM EASTLAND TO DFW TO HONEY
GROVE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE A BIT COOLER, WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, WHEREAS
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING STRATUS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID 70S TO LOW
80S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
TOMORROW, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
MORNING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT
WILL BE LOSING SOME OF ITS MOMENTUM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO MAY
SKIRT OUR NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT PRIOR
TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AS IT MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS
DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS
TIME BUT NON-ZERO. WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL MATERIALIZE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS, SO ENSURE YOU'RE MONITORING THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET WITHIN RANGE OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE.
STORM CHANCES (INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS) WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND/OR EXIT THE REGION. A RELATIVE LULL IN RAIN/STORM
CHANCES IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, THOUGH WE'LL CARRY
SOME 20-50% POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A FEW SUB-SEVERE SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ACTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE A RUN AT OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IT'S
UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING AS HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.
BY FRIDAY, THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER
EAST, POTENTIALLY BREACHING OUR WESTERN BORDER. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EACH ROUND OF STORMS, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LOCATION/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE FLOODING THREAT TO INCREASE WITH EACH ROUND OF STORMS,
ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO ENSURE YOU KEEP
UP WITH THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FINALLY SCATTERING OUT, WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED
TO SLIDE INTO D10 AIRSPACE AND HAS BROUGHT A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
TO THE METROPLEX TERMINALS. THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING BY 23Z OR SO. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 7-9 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KACT, WITH NO FROPA
EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY, WITH
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND
13-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 84 65 79 / 0 10 10 60
WACO 61 85 65 82 / 0 10 0 60
PARIS 59 80 63 78 / 10 20 10 60
DENTON 58 84 60 78 / 0 10 10 60
MCKINNEY 60 83 63 78 / 10 10 10 60
DALLAS 63 84 66 81 / 0 10 10 60
TERRELL 60 84 64 80 / 0 20 10 60
CORSICANA 63 86 66 83 / 0 20 0 60
TEMPLE 61 87 64 83 / 0 10 0 60
MINERAL WELLS 57 87 60 78 / 0 0 10 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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