392
FXUS64 KFWD 040748
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING DAILY RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THURSDAY,
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A WARM, MUGGY EARLY MARCH NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COMPACT, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDDAY. STEEPENING 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
AND CONTINUED WARM-MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A PLUME OF
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTLE CAPPING
CENTERED NEAR 750MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL AFTER 4-5PM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL BE
SITUATED NEAR THE I-35 AND I-20W CORRIDORS BY THE TIME CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE VARIES IN OVERALL COVERAGE, WITH THE HRRR/RRFS SOLUTIONS
ACTING MORE BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE
3KM NAM REMAINING MORE BEARISH. ONLY 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON THE LOWER END, HOWEVER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW MORE ROBUST CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1.5-2" IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN
THE 5PM TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS, SOME MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
A QUICK SPIN-UP WEDNESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20. MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND SHIFT NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
AS THE DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OCCURS AND THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, OTHER SOURCES OF LIFT OUTSIDE OF WARM-ADVECTION AND
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE KEEPING ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE NOSE OF BETTER THETA-E ADVECTION. WE WILL BE
MONITORING DECAYING DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT OF WEST
TEXAS TO SEE IF IT MAKES A RUN FOR OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES WEST
OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT IN THESE COUNTIES.
A MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY INCREASING A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SETTLE OVER THE
REGION EAST OF A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RESIDE WEST OF I-35 BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, SO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY FAVOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY (ESPECIALLY WITH
CONCERNS ON HOW CLOUD COVER IMPACTS OVERALL DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION). 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS EVEN
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
NORTH OF I-20 NEARER TO THE RED RIVER WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SRH WILL LIKELY OVERLAP MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
PERSISTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT OBSERVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TRAINING STORMS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK AS WE NAIL DOWN THE AREAS THAT MAY OBSERVE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (POTENTIALLY 3+") THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS ONCE AGAIN SPREADING OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WITH 1500-2500 FT CIGS ALREADY OVER KACT
REACHING THE METROPLEX TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOW
STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, LIFTING TO
VFR STATUS AFTER ~19Z. INTERMITTENT CIGS AT ~2500-3000 FT MAY
CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE METROPLEX FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY
STALLING ACROSS WESTERN D10 BY MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS AT KFTW AND KAFW MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 22Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERALL
COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, SO OPTED TO KEEP JUST VCTS IN
THE TAF AT THIS MOMENT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LARGELY SHIFT NORTH OF THE METROPLEX BY 11PM-12AM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 65 80 66 / 50 60 50 20
WACO 79 65 82 65 / 40 30 50 10
PARIS 77 63 79 63 / 50 60 60 20
DENTON 77 60 78 62 / 60 70 60 20
MCKINNEY 77 64 79 65 / 60 70 60 20
DALLAS 79 65 81 66 / 50 60 50 20
TERRELL 80 64 82 65 / 40 50 50 10
CORSICANA 81 67 84 67 / 40 20 40 10
TEMPLE 81 65 83 65 / 50 30 50 10
MINERAL WELLS 76 59 80 62 / 60 60 60 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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