092
FXUS64 KFWD 050016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
THREAT TO MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX UP THROUGH THE RED
RIVER. AS EXPECTED, WE'VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING, WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DALLAS AND
ROCKWALL COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN URBAN AREAS, LEADING TO A FLOODING THREAT DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE AS WELL.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
1500-2000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY ~20-30 KTS. THESE STORMS
ARE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING, BUT THE
LIMITED SHEAR HAS LARGELY INHIBITED THIS SO FAR. HOWEVER, WE ARE
MONITORING A WINDOW HERE THROUGH THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OR SO, WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO AROUND 35 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR STILL OVERLAPPING
WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE STORM STRUCTURE AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER ROTATION IN SOME OF THESE STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL LOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING
UP TOWARDS THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE 6-7 DAYS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOWER-END. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW, BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WARM AND MOIST FLOW DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LAST WEEKEND,
PUMPING PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHILE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR. ALOFT, BROAD ASCENT BROUGHT ABOUT BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER-LEVELS AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE
HELPING DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AS OF THIS WRITING (~1 PM).
LATEST ACARS/AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A CAP OVER THE
REGION, SO WE HAVEN'T SEEN MANY THUNDERSTORMS YET. HOWEVER, AS
LIFT WORKS ON THE CAP FROM ABOVE AND BELOW, WE EXPECT THE CAP TO
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
AID IN DESTABILIZATION/EROSION OF THE CAP AND INCREASED STORM
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
WE'LL BE WATCHING TWO MAIN STORM INITIATION ZONES TODAY. ONE NEAR THE
FRONT AND ANOTHER GENERALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITHIN A
BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STORMS WITHIN THE ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD START AS SHOWERS THAT GRADUALLY BLOSSOM INTO
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP A
LITTLE QUICKER.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, STALLING NEAR
A LINE FROM SHERMAN/DENISON TO THE DFW METROPLEX TO STEPHENVILLE A
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS, EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT TO INCREASE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY
WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO
SEVERE WEATHER IS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN ~1500-2500. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED, SO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR
MULTICELLS INSTEAD OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS OR A LINE OF STORMS.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, A FEW ZEALOUS STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO HAVE
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGING COLD POOLS MAY FORM A
PSEUDO-LINE OF STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE
MESSY. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE FRONT THIS EVENING,
THOUGH. EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
DEVELOPMENT, THEN RETREAT NORTH AND WEST IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
BE HIGHEST FROM ABOUT 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WANING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND WAFT NORTH.
BY DAYBREAK, ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY ABOUT MID-MORNING. SINCE STAUNCH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AND
THE MOIST AIRMASS HASN'T GONE ANYWHERE, A FEW WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE, BUT WILL MONITOR THE LATEST DATA TO
ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE SPC DOES HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW, BUT TO OUR WEST NEAR A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AND
THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
UPDATE...
THE DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL LARGELY ON-TRACK AND CAPTURES THE
MAIN THREATS. THE KEY MESSAGES TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT WE'LL REMAIN
IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FRIDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE THE THREAT
OF FLOODING (BOTH RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING) RAMPS UP OVER THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BONNETTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY INCREASING A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SETTLE OVER THE
REGION EAST OF A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO RESIDE WEST OF I-35 BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, SO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY FAVOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY (ESPECIALLY WITH
CONCERNS ON HOW CLOUD COVER IMPACTS OVERALL DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION). 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS EVEN
A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
NORTH OF I-20 NEARER TO THE RED RIVER WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SRH WILL LIKELY OVERLAP MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
PERSISTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT OBSERVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TRAINING STORMS. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST THIS WEEK AS WE NAIL DOWN THE AREAS THAT MAY OBSERVE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (POTENTIALLY 3+") THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LANGFELD
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CONCERNS... ONGOING TSRA ACROSS D10; ADDITIONAL MVFR
OVERNIGHT/THUR MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED SITES ACROSS D10 WITH CURRENT
STORMS NOW SOUTHEAST OF GKY AND DAL. THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ~01-04Z THIS EVENING, WITH THE LATEST TRENDS KEEPING
NEARBY SHOWERS AND VCTS THROUGH 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT
STALLED AND IS NOW ORIENTED NEAR/JUST WEST OF DTO AND AFW, WITH A
TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE N/NW STILL LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. MVFR IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AGAIN AROUND ~07Z AND LINGERING INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
SCATTERING. SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH
WINDS ~12-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LOWER WITH LESS CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AT ANY SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR ANY SHRA/TS MENTION IN
FUTURE ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 64 80 66 / 80 80 40 30
WACO 80 66 81 65 / 50 60 40 20
PARIS 79 63 79 63 / 60 80 50 20
DENTON 77 58 79 63 / 70 80 40 40
MCKINNEY 78 63 79 65 / 80 80 50 40
DALLAS 80 65 80 66 / 80 80 40 30
TERRELL 80 64 82 65 / 70 70 40 20
CORSICANA 82 67 84 67 / 60 40 40 20
TEMPLE 81 65 83 65 / 60 40 40 20
MINERAL WELLS 74 59 81 63 / 60 70 40 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...GORDON
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