593
FXUS64 KFWD 161832
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. UNSECURED
OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE WIND, AND DRIVING MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS
FIRES WILL EASILY IGNITE.
- A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL NEED TO BE COVERED OR
BROUGHT INSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHILE STILL QUITE BREEZY, THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH MORE
MANAGEABLE THAN YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20-30 MPH WILL PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND CADENCE AS THE POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WITH THE REGION SITUATED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PUSHING
OCCASIONALLY DENSE CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH THE INFLUX OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED AMPLIFIED COLD
AIR ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO PEAK INTO THE 40S AND 50S. EVEN WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS, WE
REMAIN WITHIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP OUR THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ATOP NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL AID IN
MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT. WHILE THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF CIRRUS MAY OFFSET MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
TO NEAR FREEZING, OUTSIDE OF OUR MORE HIGHLY URBAN AREAS LIKE DFW.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30, SO ANOTHER MORNING
OF PROTECTING SENSITIVE PLANTS AND BUNDLING UP ON YOUR MORNING
COMMUTE WILL BE NECESSARY. A LATE SEASON FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE IMPACTS
THEY WILL HAVE ON SENSITIVE AND NEW VEGETATION GROWTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE RETURNED BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH
AFTERNOON SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S. A
LAG IN MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AS HUMIDITY DROPS
INTO THE 15-25% RANGE, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AFTER STARTING THE WEEK FEELING MORE LIKE WINTER, WE WILL END THE
WEEK WITH SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER EAST BY A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MEXICO, PUSHING MORE SUBSIDENT AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THE WEEK GOES ON. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIR WILL PROMOTE QUITE THE WARMING TREND
OVER THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, LOW- MID LEVEL (850-500 MB) MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE IN AT LEAST THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE,
AND WITH EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING EACH AFTERNOON, THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO TRANSLATE SOMEWHAT DOWN TOWARDS THE
GROUND. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
80S AND 90S STARTING THURSDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
NEAR OR EVEN EXCEED DAILY HIGH RECORDS FOR OUR DFW AND WACO
CLIMATE SITES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ELEVATED WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-20 KT GUSTING TO
AROUND 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FEW HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING IN GUST INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRPORTS
WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH STREAMING CIRRUS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
LIGHTEN OVER THE EVENING. WINDS WILL MARKEDLY DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE POST- FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION, SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT < 5 KT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS RETURN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 34 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 31 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 45 27 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 50 28 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 29 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 34 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 31 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 53 29 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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