144
FXUS64 KFWD 171047
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY NEAR
AND WEST OF I-35 DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS FIRES WILL EASILY IGNITE.
- MUCH WARMER AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TUESDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, BEGINNING WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND ENDING
WITH A MUCH MILDER AND BREEZIER PATTERN TAKING HOLD BY THE
EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD START
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AND THAT WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO REESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION. AS
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR WEST AND CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEE TROUGHING WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD FREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER EFFICIENTLY UNDER FULL SUN WITH HIGHS GENERALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY DESPITE THE RETURN FLOW, SO
ANOTHER GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS COULD ALSO FLIRT
WITH NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IF MOISTURE RETURN LAGS A BIT MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME
REMAINS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT RATHER THAN A HEADLINE-
LEVEL EVENT. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THE BROADER PATTERN
REMAINS DRY AND MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
THE DEVELOPING WARMING TREND. THIS IS WORTH KEEPING IN MIND
AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PIVOTS AWAY FROM COOL OR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS AND TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY REGIME THAT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FIRE-SENSITIVE WITH TIME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY A DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM PATTERN AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A STEADY WARMING TREND FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE DEALING WITH A MUCH MORE SUMMER-LIKE STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR LATE MARCH WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND 90S BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL GULF RECOVERY OR
RAIN SIGNAL IS ALSO IMPORTANT HERE AS THERE IS LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC
OR FUEL MOISTURE OFFSET TO THE WARMING TREND. EVEN ON DAYS
WITHOUT PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS, THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY WEATHER
AND RECURRENT LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY MAKE THE
PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE STARTS AND GROWTH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HEAT SIGNAL LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
STAND OUT IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. RISING 850-700 MB MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE LARGE SCALE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT
FOR THIS WARM-UP, AND DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD HELP TRANSLATE
THAT ANOMALOUS WARMTH ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLES FROM BOTH THE NAEFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RETURN INTERVAL ON THE ORDER OF 30 YEARS WITH MORE THAN HALF OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF EFI
VALUES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEED 0.9 WITH POSITIVE SHIFT
OF TAILS VALUES AROUND 1 TO 2, SIGNALING NOT ONLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE ENSEMBLE IS VENTURING INTO THE MORE EXTREME EDGE OF THE MODEL
CLIMATE. THIS DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE HOTTEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME, BUT
IT DOES LEND SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT HIGHS MAY STILL NEED TO
TREND UPWARD IN LATER FORECASTS. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY TRUE
WEST OF I-35 WHERE ANOMALOUSLY WARM RIDGE PATTERNS OFTEN VERIFY A
BIT HOTTER THAN THE BROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE DUE TO DEEPER MIXING
AND THE IMPACT OF ANY SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
AT A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AND SENDS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THAT FRONT MAY
OFFER SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MOISTURE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. UNTIL THEN, THE MORE IMMEDIATE STORY WILL
BE THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN AND THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF REPEATED WARM AFTERNOONS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
CONTINUED FUEL DRYING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
BEING THE RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT, GENERALLY 5 KT
OR LESS, BUT SPEEDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. GUSTS SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING, THOUGH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 64 44 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 61 42 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 66 42 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 63 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 66 47 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 65 43 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 66 45 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 67 42 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 68 42 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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