527
FXUS64 KFWD 172314
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH LIKE TODAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS FIRES WILL
EASILY IGNITE.
- AN EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE WILL USHER IN RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY YESTERDAY, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS
ON ITS WAY TO A WARM UP, CULMINATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
OUR PATH TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IS CURRENTLY BEING PAVED
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST, CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE HIGH IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT WILL INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER
COMPARED TO WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN EAST TEXAS TO LOWER 80S
(WESTERN NORTH TEXAS).
THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMING CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED GRASSFIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PROMOTE SOME FIRE SPREAD SHOULD A FIRE
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
90S RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE GIVEN THE
RIDGE'S CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SUPPORT THAT INDICATES NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS IS ON TRACK TO BREAK SEVERAL RECORDS BY THE TIME
THIS WEEK IS ALL SAID AND DONE. NAEFS/EPS PERCENTILES SUGGEST A
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 500 MILLIBARS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SAID IT PERFECTLY...
"ECMWF EFI VALUES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEED 0.9 WITH
POSITIVE SHIFT OF TAILS VALUES AROUND 1 TO 2, SIGNALING NOT ONLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS BUT ALSO THAT AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE IS VENTURING INTO THE MORE EXTREME EDGE
OF THE MODEL CLIMATE. THIS DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE HOTTEST
POSSIBLE OUTCOME, BUT IT DOES LEND SUPPORT TO THE IDEA THAT HIGHS
MAY STILL NEED TO TREND UPWARD IN LATER FORECASTS."
LATEST GUIDANCE DRIVES TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS JUST SHY OF 100 DEGREES WEST OF
US-281. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. WITH THIS WAVE OF HEAT
FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY COOL PERIOD, ACCLIMATION TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE LONGER THAN A FEW DAYS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS
IN THE SHADE!
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT COMING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STEADILY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES.
APART FROM SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT WILL SPILL OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
00Z THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN
TIGHT MOST OF TONIGHT, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THE LOWEST
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE. THIS WILL BRING AN END
TO GUSTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH A DIMINISHED BUT STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING AT AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY, GUSTING AT
TIMES IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 46 78 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 43 77 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 43 73 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 43 77 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 45 76 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 46 78 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 43 76 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 45 78 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 42 78 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 41 80 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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