139
FXUS64 KFWD 181844
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS FIRES WILL EASILY
IGNITE.
- AN EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE WILL USHER IN RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
GLIDING TOWARDS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD THAT IS SURE TO BREAK
DAILY RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. THIS TRANSITION FROM COOL
TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS IS
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MIGRATES EASTWARD,
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND APPROPRIATELY WITH 70S EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD 80S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AREAS
WEST OF BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE 90 DEGREES
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO A RAPID AFTERNOON WARMUP.
THE DRY AIR, MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
20S, WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN PLACE, NOT JUST AT THE SURFACE, BUT ALSO IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE, A RECURRING PATTERN WILL
TRANSPIRE EACH AFTERNOON AS SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF USHER
IN BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, THE GRADUAL DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FURTHER
PROMOTE HOT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WHERE UPPER 80S
ARE MOST LIKELY. THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT STOP THERE AS HIGHS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. HERE ARE THE EXPECTED NUMBERS AND HOW THEY COMPARED TO DAILY
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS OUR TWO CLIMATE SITES:
DFW
FORECASTRECORD
19TH8995
20TH 9392
21ST97100
22ND9793
WACO
FORECASTRECORD
19TH8690
20TH 9188
21ST9493
22ND9489
AS SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE, MULTIPLE RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BROKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS EARLY SEASON
HEATWAVE MAY LEAD TO A FASTER ONSET OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
GIVEN THE REDUCED ACCLIMATION PERIOD. IF YOU PLAN ON SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, ENSURE YOU ARE PROPERLY HYDRATED, WEAR
LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE SUN.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ALMOST EVERY DAY THIS
WEEK ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 GIVEN THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE LIMITING FACTORS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE LACK OF
STRONG WINDS. ON SUNDAY, THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEST OF I-35. COMBINED WITH RECORD
BREAKING HOT TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 20%, THE THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS WITH A POTENTIAL
TO SPREAD WILL INCREASE.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INDICATION THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, REDUCING DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EVEN WITH THIS "COOL DOWN"
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAIN IN AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WEATHER CONCERNS TO AVIATORS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
30 HOURS GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER, CLOUD HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FL250. THIS AFTERNOON'S WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 10-12 KTS, DECREASING CLOSER TO 8 KTS OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A
FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 75 51 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 72 49 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 75 48 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 74 51 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 76 54 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 76 49 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 48 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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